Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to an overnight low in the upper 70s for Houston on September 6, driven by persistent high dew points near 75°F, light southerly flow, and residual moisture from prior showers that limit radiational cooling. This setup favors the 78-79°F outcome bucket now holding substantial market share, while the elevated 88°F+ probability reflects uncertainty around any brief warm advection or measurement timing near midnight. Historical September averages near 75°F provide context, yet the current pattern aligns more closely with recent warm nights. Updated short-range model runs and the evening forecast discussion from NWS Houston/Galveston remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in these closely matched probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 6?
88°F or higher 93%
70-71°F 47%
78-79°F 41%
72-73°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
69°F or below
17%
70-71°F
47%
72-73°F
38%
74-75°F
25%
76-77°F
35%
78-79°F
41%
80-81°F
38%
82-83°F
38%
84-85°F
3%
86-87°F
3%
88°F or higher
93%
88°F or higher 93%
70-71°F 47%
78-79°F 41%
72-73°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
17%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
47%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
38%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
25%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
35%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
41%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
38%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
38%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
3%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
3%
88°F or higher
$0 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to an overnight low in the upper 70s for Houston on September 6, driven by persistent high dew points near 75°F, light southerly flow, and residual moisture from prior showers that limit radiational cooling. This setup favors the 78-79°F outcome bucket now holding substantial market share, while the elevated 88°F+ probability reflects uncertainty around any brief warm advection or measurement timing near midnight. Historical September averages near 75°F provide context, yet the current pattern aligns more closely with recent warm nights. Updated short-range model runs and the evening forecast discussion from NWS Houston/Galveston remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in these closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to an overnight low in the upper 70s for Houston on September 6, driven by persistent high dew points near 75°F, light southerly flow, and residual moisture from prior showers that limit radiational cooling. This setup favors the 78-79°F outcome bucket now holding substantial market share, while the elevated 88°F+ probability reflects uncertainty around any brief warm advection or measurement timing near midnight. Historical September averages near 75°F provide context, yet the current pattern aligns more closely with recent warm nights. Updated short-range model runs and the evening forecast discussion from NWS Houston/Galveston remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in these closely matched probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance point to an overnight low in the upper 70s for Houston on September 6, driven by persistent high dew points near 75°F, light southerly flow, and residual moisture from prior showers that limit radiational cooling. This setup favors the 78-79°F outcome bucket now holding substantial market share, while the elevated 88°F+ probability reflects uncertainty around any brief warm advection or measurement timing near midnight. Historical September averages near 75°F provide context, yet the current pattern aligns more closely with recent warm nights. Updated short-range model runs and the evening forecast discussion from NWS Houston/Galveston remain the key near-term catalysts for shifts in these closely matched probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions