Recent observational data from National Weather Service stations around Houston confirm overnight lows reached 78–79°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s dominant 90% implied probability for that bin. Persistent high humidity, dew points near 75°F, and limited overnight clearing under subtropical high pressure suppressed radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 74.8°F. Model guidance in the preceding 48 hours showed consensus around these values with little spread, while the absence of any frontal passage or enhanced mixing further supported the elevated floor. Traders therefore assigned only single-digit odds to cooler outcomes, reflecting both the observed atmospheric setup and the narrow historical range for early-September minima in the region.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 5?
78-79°F 98%
69°F or below 20%
76-77°F 20%
74-75°F 10%
$763 Vol.
$763 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
69°F or below
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
Yes
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88°F or higher
No
78-79°F 98%
69°F or below 20%
76-77°F 20%
74-75°F 10%
$763 Vol.
$763 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
69°F or below
$32 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$99 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$57 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$27 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$27 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$38 Vol.
Yes
80-81°F
$233 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$109 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$47 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$47 Vol.
No
88°F or higher
$47 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observational data from National Weather Service stations around Houston confirm overnight lows reached 78–79°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s dominant 90% implied probability for that bin. Persistent high humidity, dew points near 75°F, and limited overnight clearing under subtropical high pressure suppressed radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 74.8°F. Model guidance in the preceding 48 hours showed consensus around these values with little spread, while the absence of any frontal passage or enhanced mixing further supported the elevated floor. Traders therefore assigned only single-digit odds to cooler outcomes, reflecting both the observed atmospheric setup and the narrow historical range for early-September minima in the region.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$763End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observational data from National Weather Service stations around Houston confirm overnight lows reached 78–79°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s dominant 90% implied probability for that bin. Persistent high humidity, dew points near 75°F, and limited overnight clearing under subtropical high pressure suppressed radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 74.8°F. Model guidance in the preceding 48 hours showed consensus around these values with little spread, while the absence of any frontal passage or enhanced mixing further supported the elevated floor. Traders therefore assigned only single-digit odds to cooler outcomes, reflecting both the observed atmospheric setup and the narrow historical range for early-September minima in the region.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$763End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent observational data from National Weather Service stations around Houston confirm overnight lows reached 78–79°F on September 5, 2026, aligning with the market’s dominant 90% implied probability for that bin. Persistent high humidity, dew points near 75°F, and limited overnight clearing under subtropical high pressure suppressed radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 74.8°F. Model guidance in the preceding 48 hours showed consensus around these values with little spread, while the absence of any frontal passage or enhanced mixing further supported the elevated floor. Traders therefore assigned only single-digit odds to cooler outcomes, reflecting both the observed atmospheric setup and the narrow historical range for early-September minima in the region.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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