Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources indicate a mostly sunny September 10 in Austin with southerly flow and highs in the upper 90s, positioning the 98-99°F bin as the market leader at 50.5% implied probability. Light winds and limited cloud cover support strong daytime heating above the 92°F climatological average, while moderate humidity contributes to heat indices near 105°F without pushing temperatures into triple digits. Consensus across short-range guidance shows little day-to-day change from recent hot conditions, with only a slight chance of afternoon showers that would cap the maximum. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a 100-101°F outlier against the more probable stabilization in the upper 90s ahead of the next forecast update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 10?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 10?
98-99°F 52%
100-101°F 20%
96-97°F 18%
94-95°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
3%
94-95°F
5%
96-97°F
18%
98-99°F
52%
100-101°F
20%
102-103°F
4%
104-105°F
1%
106-107°F
1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 52%
100-101°F 20%
96-97°F 18%
94-95°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
89°F or below
$180 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$98 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
3%
94-95°F
$24 Vol.
5%
96-97°F
$3,387 Vol.
18%
98-99°F
$529 Vol.
52%
100-101°F
$1,184 Vol.
20%
102-103°F
$263 Vol.
4%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
1%
106-107°F
$147 Vol.
1%
108°F or higher
$201 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources indicate a mostly sunny September 10 in Austin with southerly flow and highs in the upper 90s, positioning the 98-99°F bin as the market leader at 50.5% implied probability. Light winds and limited cloud cover support strong daytime heating above the 92°F climatological average, while moderate humidity contributes to heat indices near 105°F without pushing temperatures into triple digits. Consensus across short-range guidance shows little day-to-day change from recent hot conditions, with only a slight chance of afternoon showers that would cap the maximum. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a 100-101°F outlier against the more probable stabilization in the upper 90s ahead of the next forecast update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$6,013End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources indicate a mostly sunny September 10 in Austin with southerly flow and highs in the upper 90s, positioning the 98-99°F bin as the market leader at 50.5% implied probability. Light winds and limited cloud cover support strong daytime heating above the 92°F climatological average, while moderate humidity contributes to heat indices near 105°F without pushing temperatures into triple digits. Consensus across short-range guidance shows little day-to-day change from recent hot conditions, with only a slight chance of afternoon showers that would cap the maximum. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a 100-101°F outlier against the more probable stabilization in the upper 90s ahead of the next forecast update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,013End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources indicate a mostly sunny September 10 in Austin with southerly flow and highs in the upper 90s, positioning the 98-99°F bin as the market leader at 50.5% implied probability. Light winds and limited cloud cover support strong daytime heating above the 92°F climatological average, while moderate humidity contributes to heat indices near 105°F without pushing temperatures into triple digits. Consensus across short-range guidance shows little day-to-day change from recent hot conditions, with only a slight chance of afternoon showers that would cap the maximum. Traders appear to weigh the risk of a 100-101°F outlier against the more probable stabilization in the upper 90s ahead of the next forecast update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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