The arrival of autumn’s first northeasterly wind system on September 9 is the dominant driver behind current market-implied odds favoring 30–31 °C highs in Taipei. Official Central Weather Administration guidance and ensemble models show this flow advecting cooler, moister maritime air onshore, increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Historical September baselines near 30 °C, combined with the timing of the wind shift relative to peak insolation, explain why traders assign roughly 59 % combined probability to 30–31 °C while discounting 32 °C or higher. Forecast spread across models on exact shower coverage and wind strength introduces the observed uncertainty between those two leading outcomes, with resolution hinging on the next CWA update and 48-hour model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on September 9?
Highest temperature in Taipei on September 9?
31°C 33%
30°C 26%
32°C 18%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
25°C or below
3%
26°C
3%
27°C
3%
28°C
4%
29°C
11%
30°C
26%
31°C
33%
32°C
18%
33°C
5%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
2%
31°C 33%
30°C 26%
32°C 18%
29°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C
$81 Vol.
3%
27°C
$310 Vol.
3%
28°C
$31 Vol.
4%
29°C
$75 Vol.
11%
30°C
$66 Vol.
26%
31°C
$162 Vol.
33%
32°C
$781 Vol.
18%
33°C
$26 Vol.
5%
34°C
$64 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The arrival of autumn’s first northeasterly wind system on September 9 is the dominant driver behind current market-implied odds favoring 30–31 °C highs in Taipei. Official Central Weather Administration guidance and ensemble models show this flow advecting cooler, moister maritime air onshore, increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Historical September baselines near 30 °C, combined with the timing of the wind shift relative to peak insolation, explain why traders assign roughly 59 % combined probability to 30–31 °C while discounting 32 °C or higher. Forecast spread across models on exact shower coverage and wind strength introduces the observed uncertainty between those two leading outcomes, with resolution hinging on the next CWA update and 48-hour model runs.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,559End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The arrival of autumn’s first northeasterly wind system on September 9 is the dominant driver behind current market-implied odds favoring 30–31 °C highs in Taipei. Official Central Weather Administration guidance and ensemble models show this flow advecting cooler, moister maritime air onshore, increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Historical September baselines near 30 °C, combined with the timing of the wind shift relative to peak insolation, explain why traders assign roughly 59 % combined probability to 30–31 °C while discounting 32 °C or higher. Forecast spread across models on exact shower coverage and wind strength introduces the observed uncertainty between those two leading outcomes, with resolution hinging on the next CWA update and 48-hour model runs.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,559End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...The arrival of autumn’s first northeasterly wind system on September 9 is the dominant driver behind current market-implied odds favoring 30–31 °C highs in Taipei. Official Central Weather Administration guidance and ensemble models show this flow advecting cooler, moister maritime air onshore, increasing cloud cover and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Historical September baselines near 30 °C, combined with the timing of the wind shift relative to peak insolation, explain why traders assign roughly 59 % combined probability to 30–31 °C while discounting 32 °C or higher. Forecast spread across models on exact shower coverage and wind strength introduces the observed uncertainty between those two leading outcomes, with resolution hinging on the next CWA update and 48-hour model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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