Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus for Austin shows southerly flow and elevated dew points sustaining overnight lows near 77°F on September 10, with limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. Persistent high pressure and typical early-September humidity suppress sharp temperature drops, keeping minimums well above the 69.6°F climatological average while also capping any extreme daytime heat that could indirectly influence the daily low. Traders appear split between this warm baseline and the small but non-zero chance of a brief cool-air intrusion or clearer skies enhancing nighttime cooling, creating the near-even odds on the extreme tails versus the clustered mid-70s buckets. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 9 will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 10?
69°F or below 92%
88°F or higher 86%
86-87°F 39%
80-81°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
69°F or below
92%
70-71°F
37%
72-73°F
23%
74-75°F
23%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
38%
82-83°F
38%
84-85°F
38%
86-87°F
39%
88°F or higher
86%
69°F or below 92%
88°F or higher 86%
86-87°F 39%
80-81°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
92%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
37%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
23%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
23%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
22%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
19%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
38%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
38%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
38%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
39%
88°F or higher
$0 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus for Austin shows southerly flow and elevated dew points sustaining overnight lows near 77°F on September 10, with limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. Persistent high pressure and typical early-September humidity suppress sharp temperature drops, keeping minimums well above the 69.6°F climatological average while also capping any extreme daytime heat that could indirectly influence the daily low. Traders appear split between this warm baseline and the small but non-zero chance of a brief cool-air intrusion or clearer skies enhancing nighttime cooling, creating the near-even odds on the extreme tails versus the clustered mid-70s buckets. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 9 will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus for Austin shows southerly flow and elevated dew points sustaining overnight lows near 77°F on September 10, with limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. Persistent high pressure and typical early-September humidity suppress sharp temperature drops, keeping minimums well above the 69.6°F climatological average while also capping any extreme daytime heat that could indirectly influence the daily low. Traders appear split between this warm baseline and the small but non-zero chance of a brief cool-air intrusion or clearer skies enhancing nighttime cooling, creating the near-even odds on the extreme tails versus the clustered mid-70s buckets. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 9 will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus for Austin shows southerly flow and elevated dew points sustaining overnight lows near 77°F on September 10, with limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. Persistent high pressure and typical early-September humidity suppress sharp temperature drops, keeping minimums well above the 69.6°F climatological average while also capping any extreme daytime heat that could indirectly influence the daily low. Traders appear split between this warm baseline and the small but non-zero chance of a brief cool-air intrusion or clearer skies enhancing nighttime cooling, creating the near-even odds on the extreme tails versus the clustered mid-70s buckets. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through September 9 will refine these variables ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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