Recent model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and lingering rainy-season moisture as the main driver positioning 6°C or below at 43.5% implied probability for Mexico City’s September 10 minimum. At 2,240 m elevation, clear spells allow efficient heat loss, while typical September climatology features average lows near 12–13°C with occasional drops from northerly intrusions. Current forecasts cluster around 12–14°C, yet model spread and timing of any breaks in cloud cover sustain trader focus on cooler tails. Updated runs from national meteorological services and real-time observations ahead of the date will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on September 10?
6°C or below 92%
16°C or higher 47%
7°C 40%
9°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
6°C or below
92%
7°C
40%
8°C
37%
9°C
40%
10°C
39%
11°C
21%
12°C
21%
13°C
27%
14°C
40%
15°C
25%
16°C or higher
47%
6°C or below 92%
16°C or higher 47%
7°C 40%
9°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
92%
7°C
$0 Vol.
40%
8°C
$0 Vol.
37%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
25%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and lingering rainy-season moisture as the main driver positioning 6°C or below at 43.5% implied probability for Mexico City’s September 10 minimum. At 2,240 m elevation, clear spells allow efficient heat loss, while typical September climatology features average lows near 12–13°C with occasional drops from northerly intrusions. Current forecasts cluster around 12–14°C, yet model spread and timing of any breaks in cloud cover sustain trader focus on cooler tails. Updated runs from national meteorological services and real-time observations ahead of the date will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and lingering rainy-season moisture as the main driver positioning 6°C or below at 43.5% implied probability for Mexico City’s September 10 minimum. At 2,240 m elevation, clear spells allow efficient heat loss, while typical September climatology features average lows near 12–13°C with occasional drops from northerly intrusions. Current forecasts cluster around 12–14°C, yet model spread and timing of any breaks in cloud cover sustain trader focus on cooler tails. Updated runs from national meteorological services and real-time observations ahead of the date will likely refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmx
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=mmmxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus points to overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and lingering rainy-season moisture as the main driver positioning 6°C or below at 43.5% implied probability for Mexico City’s September 10 minimum. At 2,240 m elevation, clear spells allow efficient heat loss, while typical September climatology features average lows near 12–13°C with occasional drops from northerly intrusions. Current forecasts cluster around 12–14°C, yet model spread and timing of any breaks in cloud cover sustain trader focus on cooler tails. Updated runs from national meteorological services and real-time observations ahead of the date will likely refine these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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