Current forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 74–75°F in New York City on September 10, driven by persistent southerly winds advecting warmer air, elevated dew points, and overnight cloud cover limiting radiational cooling. Recent ensemble runs from the National Weather Service show tight clustering around this range, consistent with above-average late-summer conditions and weak high pressure. Trader sentiment remains split between sub-68°F and 86°F-plus outcomes because small shifts in timing of frontal passage or model bias in boundary-layer mixing could alter the overnight low by several degrees; updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten probabilities around the mid-70s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on September 10?
Lowest temperature in NYC on September 10?
67°F or below 48%
86°F or higher 47%
76-77°F 40%
68-69°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
67°F or below
48%
68-69°F
38%
70-71°F
16%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
28%
76-77°F
40%
78-79°F
38%
80-81°F
38%
82-83°F
38%
84-85°F
38%
86°F or higher
47%
67°F or below 48%
86°F or higher 47%
76-77°F 40%
68-69°F 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
48%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
38%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
16%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
22%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
28%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
40%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
38%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
38%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
38%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
38%
86°F or higher
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 74–75°F in New York City on September 10, driven by persistent southerly winds advecting warmer air, elevated dew points, and overnight cloud cover limiting radiational cooling. Recent ensemble runs from the National Weather Service show tight clustering around this range, consistent with above-average late-summer conditions and weak high pressure. Trader sentiment remains split between sub-68°F and 86°F-plus outcomes because small shifts in timing of frontal passage or model bias in boundary-layer mixing could alter the overnight low by several degrees; updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten probabilities around the mid-70s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 74–75°F in New York City on September 10, driven by persistent southerly winds advecting warmer air, elevated dew points, and overnight cloud cover limiting radiational cooling. Recent ensemble runs from the National Weather Service show tight clustering around this range, consistent with above-average late-summer conditions and weak high pressure. Trader sentiment remains split between sub-68°F and 86°F-plus outcomes because small shifts in timing of frontal passage or model bias in boundary-layer mixing could alter the overnight low by several degrees; updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten probabilities around the mid-70s.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 74–75°F in New York City on September 10, driven by persistent southerly winds advecting warmer air, elevated dew points, and overnight cloud cover limiting radiational cooling. Recent ensemble runs from the National Weather Service show tight clustering around this range, consistent with above-average late-summer conditions and weak high pressure. Trader sentiment remains split between sub-68°F and 86°F-plus outcomes because small shifts in timing of frontal passage or model bias in boundary-layer mixing could alter the overnight low by several degrees; updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten probabilities around the mid-70s.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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