Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS, aligned with South African Weather Service guidance, indicate a mild spring day for Cape Town on September 10 with southerly winds and increasing cloud cover limiting surface heating. These conditions support a maximum temperature near 19–20 °C, consistent with the nearly equal market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Key differentiating factors include the strength of the onshore flow, which modulates the marine layer and advection of cooler air, versus any brief afternoon clearing that could allow brief radiative warming. Historical September averages near 18 °C provide context, while model spread in peak timing and exact wind speeds creates the tight contest between the two leading resolutions. Updated official observations tomorrow will determine the precise daily high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on September 10?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on September 10?
19°C 40%
20°C 39%
21°C 9%
18°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C
7%
19°C
40%
20°C
39%
21°C
9%
22°C
3%
23°C
3%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 40%
20°C 39%
21°C 9%
18°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
14°C or below
$81 Vol.
1%
15°C
$72 Vol.
1%
16°C
$44 Vol.
2%
17°C
$119 Vol.
2%
18°C
$214 Vol.
7%
19°C
$1,391 Vol.
40%
20°C
$763 Vol.
39%
21°C
$2,257 Vol.
9%
22°C
$115 Vol.
3%
23°C
$40 Vol.
3%
24°C or higher
$225 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS, aligned with South African Weather Service guidance, indicate a mild spring day for Cape Town on September 10 with southerly winds and increasing cloud cover limiting surface heating. These conditions support a maximum temperature near 19–20 °C, consistent with the nearly equal market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Key differentiating factors include the strength of the onshore flow, which modulates the marine layer and advection of cooler air, versus any brief afternoon clearing that could allow brief radiative warming. Historical September averages near 18 °C provide context, while model spread in peak timing and exact wind speeds creates the tight contest between the two leading resolutions. Updated official observations tomorrow will determine the precise daily high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$5,321End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS, aligned with South African Weather Service guidance, indicate a mild spring day for Cape Town on September 10 with southerly winds and increasing cloud cover limiting surface heating. These conditions support a maximum temperature near 19–20 °C, consistent with the nearly equal market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Key differentiating factors include the strength of the onshore flow, which modulates the marine layer and advection of cooler air, versus any brief afternoon clearing that could allow brief radiative warming. Historical September averages near 18 °C provide context, while model spread in peak timing and exact wind speeds creates the tight contest between the two leading resolutions. Updated official observations tomorrow will determine the precise daily high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,321End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models including ECMWF and GFS, aligned with South African Weather Service guidance, indicate a mild spring day for Cape Town on September 10 with southerly winds and increasing cloud cover limiting surface heating. These conditions support a maximum temperature near 19–20 °C, consistent with the nearly equal market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Key differentiating factors include the strength of the onshore flow, which modulates the marine layer and advection of cooler air, versus any brief afternoon clearing that could allow brief radiative warming. Historical September averages near 18 °C provide context, while model spread in peak timing and exact wind speeds creates the tight contest between the two leading resolutions. Updated official observations tomorrow will determine the precise daily high.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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