**Official forecasts position 27°C as the most likely minimum temperature for Hong Kong on September 8, 2026.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s 9-day outlook explicitly projects a 27–33°C range under weak winds and mainly fine conditions, with the northeast monsoon not yet strengthening enough to bring cooler air. This aligns with the market’s 51.5% implied probability for 27°C and supports the secondary 33% chance at 26°C. Early September climatology in Hong Kong typically features overnight lows of 26–27°C amid lingering summer warmth and high humidity before seasonal cooling begins. Current model consensus and the absence of significant rain or frontal passages overnight keep temperatures from dropping further, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to 25°C or below. Upcoming HKO updates and any shifts in steering patterns or monsoon timing remain the key variables that could adjust these market-implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 8?
27°C 52%
26°C 33%
28°C 14%
25°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
6%
26°C
33%
27°C
52%
28°C
14%
29°C
3%
30°C
3%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
1%
27°C 52%
26°C 33%
28°C 14%
25°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
22°C or below
$114 Vol.
1%
23°C
$114 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
3%
25°C
$294 Vol.
6%
26°C
$642 Vol.
33%
27°C
$1,667 Vol.
52%
28°C
$173 Vol.
14%
29°C
$0 Vol.
3%
30°C
$0 Vol.
3%
31°C
$114 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$114 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts position 27°C as the most likely minimum temperature for Hong Kong on September 8, 2026.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s 9-day outlook explicitly projects a 27–33°C range under weak winds and mainly fine conditions, with the northeast monsoon not yet strengthening enough to bring cooler air. This aligns with the market’s 51.5% implied probability for 27°C and supports the secondary 33% chance at 26°C.
Early September climatology in Hong Kong typically features overnight lows of 26–27°C amid lingering summer warmth and high humidity before seasonal cooling begins. Current model consensus and the absence of significant rain or frontal passages overnight keep temperatures from dropping further, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to 25°C or below. Upcoming HKO updates and any shifts in steering patterns or monsoon timing remain the key variables that could adjust these market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,231End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts position 27°C as the most likely minimum temperature for Hong Kong on September 8, 2026.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s 9-day outlook explicitly projects a 27–33°C range under weak winds and mainly fine conditions, with the northeast monsoon not yet strengthening enough to bring cooler air. This aligns with the market’s 51.5% implied probability for 27°C and supports the secondary 33% chance at 26°C.
Early September climatology in Hong Kong typically features overnight lows of 26–27°C amid lingering summer warmth and high humidity before seasonal cooling begins. Current model consensus and the absence of significant rain or frontal passages overnight keep temperatures from dropping further, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to 25°C or below. Upcoming HKO updates and any shifts in steering patterns or monsoon timing remain the key variables that could adjust these market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,231End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts position 27°C as the most likely minimum temperature for Hong Kong on September 8, 2026.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s 9-day outlook explicitly projects a 27–33°C range under weak winds and mainly fine conditions, with the northeast monsoon not yet strengthening enough to bring cooler air. This aligns with the market’s 51.5% implied probability for 27°C and supports the secondary 33% chance at 26°C. Early September climatology in Hong Kong typically features overnight lows of 26–27°C amid lingering summer warmth and high humidity before seasonal cooling begins. Current model consensus and the absence of significant rain or frontal passages overnight keep temperatures from dropping further, consistent with the low probabilities assigned to 25°C or below. Upcoming HKO updates and any shifts in steering patterns or monsoon timing remain the key variables that could adjust these market-implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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