**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) for September 7 point to a daily temperature range of 27–32°C under light winds (force 2), mainly cloudy conditions with a few showers, sunny intervals, and a medium-low chance of significant rain.** This implies an overnight minimum near 27°C, consistent with recent early-morning readings around 25.8–26.5°C on September 6 that have been trending slightly higher amid persistent humidity (65–95%) and limited radiative cooling from cloud cover. **Model consensus across sources (including ECMWF, GFS, and others) shows overnight lows clustered between 26–27°C, with minor disagreements arising from variable shower timing, wind direction shifts, and localized urban effects.** The near-even split between 26°C (45.5%) and 27°C (42.5%) in the market reflects this tight scientific uncertainty: traders weigh the official HKO minimum forecast against ensemble spreads that occasionally dip to 26°C under clearer or calmer pockets. Lower probabilities for 25°C or below align with the absence of strong cooling mechanisms like clear skies or northerly surges, while higher outcomes remain negligible given the warm, moist airmass. **The primary near-term catalyst is the next HKO forecast update and any revised model runs overnight, which could sharpen the minimum by resolving shower coverage and boundary-layer moisture.** Resolution depends on the official HKO station reading for the calendar-day minimum, making small forecast adjustments highly market-moving in this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 7?
27°C 73%
26°C 28%
25°C 3%
24°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
3%
26°C
23%
27°C
76%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 73%
26°C 28%
25°C 3%
24°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
22°C or below
$158 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1 Vol.
2%
25°C
$1,203 Vol.
3%
26°C
$1,734 Vol.
23%
27°C
$2,853 Vol.
76%
28°C
$602 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$365 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$479 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$172 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) for September 7 point to a daily temperature range of 27–32°C under light winds (force 2), mainly cloudy conditions with a few showers, sunny intervals, and a medium-low chance of significant rain.** This implies an overnight minimum near 27°C, consistent with recent early-morning readings around 25.8–26.5°C on September 6 that have been trending slightly higher amid persistent humidity (65–95%) and limited radiative cooling from cloud cover.
**Model consensus across sources (including ECMWF, GFS, and others) shows overnight lows clustered between 26–27°C, with minor disagreements arising from variable shower timing, wind direction shifts, and localized urban effects.** The near-even split between 26°C (45.5%) and 27°C (42.5%) in the market reflects this tight scientific uncertainty: traders weigh the official HKO minimum forecast against ensemble spreads that occasionally dip to 26°C under clearer or calmer pockets. Lower probabilities for 25°C or below align with the absence of strong cooling mechanisms like clear skies or northerly surges, while higher outcomes remain negligible given the warm, moist airmass.
**The primary near-term catalyst is the next HKO forecast update and any revised model runs overnight, which could sharpen the minimum by resolving shower coverage and boundary-layer moisture.** Resolution depends on the official HKO station reading for the calendar-day minimum, making small forecast adjustments highly market-moving in this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$7,785End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) for September 7 point to a daily temperature range of 27–32°C under light winds (force 2), mainly cloudy conditions with a few showers, sunny intervals, and a medium-low chance of significant rain.** This implies an overnight minimum near 27°C, consistent with recent early-morning readings around 25.8–26.5°C on September 6 that have been trending slightly higher amid persistent humidity (65–95%) and limited radiative cooling from cloud cover.
**Model consensus across sources (including ECMWF, GFS, and others) shows overnight lows clustered between 26–27°C, with minor disagreements arising from variable shower timing, wind direction shifts, and localized urban effects.** The near-even split between 26°C (45.5%) and 27°C (42.5%) in the market reflects this tight scientific uncertainty: traders weigh the official HKO minimum forecast against ensemble spreads that occasionally dip to 26°C under clearer or calmer pockets. Lower probabilities for 25°C or below align with the absence of strong cooling mechanisms like clear skies or northerly surges, while higher outcomes remain negligible given the warm, moist airmass.
**The primary near-term catalyst is the next HKO forecast update and any revised model runs overnight, which could sharpen the minimum by resolving shower coverage and boundary-layer moisture.** Resolution depends on the official HKO station reading for the calendar-day minimum, making small forecast adjustments highly market-moving in this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$7,785End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) for September 7 point to a daily temperature range of 27–32°C under light winds (force 2), mainly cloudy conditions with a few showers, sunny intervals, and a medium-low chance of significant rain.** This implies an overnight minimum near 27°C, consistent with recent early-morning readings around 25.8–26.5°C on September 6 that have been trending slightly higher amid persistent humidity (65–95%) and limited radiative cooling from cloud cover. **Model consensus across sources (including ECMWF, GFS, and others) shows overnight lows clustered between 26–27°C, with minor disagreements arising from variable shower timing, wind direction shifts, and localized urban effects.** The near-even split between 26°C (45.5%) and 27°C (42.5%) in the market reflects this tight scientific uncertainty: traders weigh the official HKO minimum forecast against ensemble spreads that occasionally dip to 26°C under clearer or calmer pockets. Lower probabilities for 25°C or below align with the absence of strong cooling mechanisms like clear skies or northerly surges, while higher outcomes remain negligible given the warm, moist airmass. **The primary near-term catalyst is the next HKO forecast update and any revised model runs overnight, which could sharpen the minimum by resolving shower coverage and boundary-layer moisture.** Resolution depends on the official HKO station reading for the calendar-day minimum, making small forecast adjustments highly market-moving in this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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