Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?

Sep 4

Sep 5

Sep 6

Sep 7

Sep 4

Sep 5

Sep 6

Sep 7

26°C 99.8%

20°C or below <1%

23°C <1%

24°C <1%

Polymarket

$26,944 Vol.

26°C 99.8%

20°C or below <1%

23°C <1%

24°C <1%

Polymarket

$26,944 Vol.

20°C or below

$1,964 Vol.

1%

21°C

$134 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$558 Vol.

<1%

23°C

$1,574 Vol.

<1%

24°C

$1,695 Vol.

<1%

25°C

$7,876 Vol.

<1%

26°C

$6,297 Vol.

100%

27°C

$2,962 Vol.

<1%

28°C

$2,691 Vol.

<1%

29°C

$1,034 Vol.

<1%

30°C or higher

$160 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory measurements recorded a minimum air temperature of 26°C on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 99.8% implied probability for that outcome. Persistent warm, humid maritime air under mostly cloudy skies limited nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat island effects in the densely built environment further moderated overnight lows. This aligns with climatological norms for early September, when average daily minima hover near 24–26°C amid the lingering influence of the East Asian summer monsoon. Forecasters note that only an atypical surge of drier, clearer air or stronger northerly winds could have driven readings below 24°C, conditions absent in the verified observations.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$26,944
End Date
Sep 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory measurements recorded a minimum air temperature of 26°C on September 4, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 99.8% implied probability for that outcome. Persistent warm, humid maritime air under mostly cloudy skies limited nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat island effects in the densely built environment further moderated overnight lows. This aligns with climatological norms for early September, when average daily minima hover near 24–26°C amid the lingering influence of the East Asian summer monsoon. Forecasters note that only an atypical surge of drier, clearer air or stronger northerly winds could have driven readings below 24°C, conditions absent in the verified observations.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$26,944
End Date
Sep 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 5?

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 5?

99%
icon for Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 7?

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 7?

44%
icon for Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 6?

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 6?

100%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "26°C" at 100%, followed by "20°C or below" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?" has generated $26.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?" is "26°C" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "20°C or below" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 4?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.