Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for September 9 project a minimum of 27°C under partly sunny skies with isolated showers and easterly winds of 3–5 on the Beaufort scale, establishing the baseline for the 57.5% market-implied probability on that outcome. Easterly flow and moderate humidity levels around 60–90% typically limit overnight radiative cooling in subtropical Hong Kong during early September, while any shower activity could produce localized dips toward 26°C. Historical September minima at the Observatory average near 25–26°C, but current model consensus and the absence of stronger northerly surges or tropical influences keep probabilities concentrated on 27°C, with 26°C and 28°C as secondary outcomes reflecting forecast uncertainty ranges. Updated HKO guidance and overnight observations will refine resolution criteria ahead of the daily minimum reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
27°C 57%
26°C 20%
28°C 16%
25°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
9%
26°C
20%
27°C
57%
28°C
16%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
1%
27°C 57%
26°C 20%
28°C 16%
25°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
21°C or below
$95 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$116 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$586 Vol.
1%
24°C
$56 Vol.
2%
25°C
$226 Vol.
9%
26°C
$1,208 Vol.
20%
27°C
$1,678 Vol.
57%
28°C
$715 Vol.
16%
29°C
$607 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$155 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$111 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for September 9 project a minimum of 27°C under partly sunny skies with isolated showers and easterly winds of 3–5 on the Beaufort scale, establishing the baseline for the 57.5% market-implied probability on that outcome. Easterly flow and moderate humidity levels around 60–90% typically limit overnight radiative cooling in subtropical Hong Kong during early September, while any shower activity could produce localized dips toward 26°C. Historical September minima at the Observatory average near 25–26°C, but current model consensus and the absence of stronger northerly surges or tropical influences keep probabilities concentrated on 27°C, with 26°C and 28°C as secondary outcomes reflecting forecast uncertainty ranges. Updated HKO guidance and overnight observations will refine resolution criteria ahead of the daily minimum reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$5,552End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for September 9 project a minimum of 27°C under partly sunny skies with isolated showers and easterly winds of 3–5 on the Beaufort scale, establishing the baseline for the 57.5% market-implied probability on that outcome. Easterly flow and moderate humidity levels around 60–90% typically limit overnight radiative cooling in subtropical Hong Kong during early September, while any shower activity could produce localized dips toward 26°C. Historical September minima at the Observatory average near 25–26°C, but current model consensus and the absence of stronger northerly surges or tropical influences keep probabilities concentrated on 27°C, with 26°C and 28°C as secondary outcomes reflecting forecast uncertainty ranges. Updated HKO guidance and overnight observations will refine resolution criteria ahead of the daily minimum reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$5,552End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for September 9 project a minimum of 27°C under partly sunny skies with isolated showers and easterly winds of 3–5 on the Beaufort scale, establishing the baseline for the 57.5% market-implied probability on that outcome. Easterly flow and moderate humidity levels around 60–90% typically limit overnight radiative cooling in subtropical Hong Kong during early September, while any shower activity could produce localized dips toward 26°C. Historical September minima at the Observatory average near 25–26°C, but current model consensus and the absence of stronger northerly surges or tropical influences keep probabilities concentrated on 27°C, with 26°C and 28°C as secondary outcomes reflecting forecast uncertainty ranges. Updated HKO guidance and overnight observations will refine resolution criteria ahead of the daily minimum reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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