Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a sharp cooldown in Chengdu driven by a cold air intrusion and associated rainfall, dropping daily highs from the mid-30s°C earlier in the week to 22–24°C on September 10. Persistent cloud cover, moderate northerly winds, and widespread precipitation—expected to peak through September 9—will limit daytime heating and enhance evaporative cooling. Trader consensus clusters on 22–23°C implied probabilities, reflecting model agreement on these thresholds while allowing for 1–2°C variance from exact rain timing or wind shifts. Updated CMA guidance and ensemble runs ahead of the date will likely refine resolution criteria around observed maximums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 10?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 10?
22°C 32%
23°C 23%
21°C 19%
24°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
18°C or below
3%
19°C
5%
20°C
9%
21°C
16%
22°C
32%
23°C
23%
24°C
14%
25°C
11%
26°C
9%
27°C
4%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 32%
23°C 23%
21°C 19%
24°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
18°C or below
$50 Vol.
3%
19°C
$7 Vol.
5%
20°C
$1 Vol.
9%
21°C
$12 Vol.
16%
22°C
$18 Vol.
32%
23°C
$0 Vol.
23%
24°C
$13 Vol.
14%
25°C
$20 Vol.
11%
26°C
$0 Vol.
9%
27°C
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C or higher
$200 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a sharp cooldown in Chengdu driven by a cold air intrusion and associated rainfall, dropping daily highs from the mid-30s°C earlier in the week to 22–24°C on September 10. Persistent cloud cover, moderate northerly winds, and widespread precipitation—expected to peak through September 9—will limit daytime heating and enhance evaporative cooling. Trader consensus clusters on 22–23°C implied probabilities, reflecting model agreement on these thresholds while allowing for 1–2°C variance from exact rain timing or wind shifts. Updated CMA guidance and ensemble runs ahead of the date will likely refine resolution criteria around observed maximums.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$320End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a sharp cooldown in Chengdu driven by a cold air intrusion and associated rainfall, dropping daily highs from the mid-30s°C earlier in the week to 22–24°C on September 10. Persistent cloud cover, moderate northerly winds, and widespread precipitation—expected to peak through September 9—will limit daytime heating and enhance evaporative cooling. Trader consensus clusters on 22–23°C implied probabilities, reflecting model agreement on these thresholds while allowing for 1–2°C variance from exact rain timing or wind shifts. Updated CMA guidance and ensemble runs ahead of the date will likely refine resolution criteria around observed maximums.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$320End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate a sharp cooldown in Chengdu driven by a cold air intrusion and associated rainfall, dropping daily highs from the mid-30s°C earlier in the week to 22–24°C on September 10. Persistent cloud cover, moderate northerly winds, and widespread precipitation—expected to peak through September 9—will limit daytime heating and enhance evaporative cooling. Trader consensus clusters on 22–23°C implied probabilities, reflecting model agreement on these thresholds while allowing for 1–2°C variance from exact rain timing or wind shifts. Updated CMA guidance and ensemble runs ahead of the date will likely refine resolution criteria around observed maximums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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