**Northeast monsoon flow and a stable weather pattern are anchoring trader consensus around a 25–26°C minimum for Hong Kong on September 10.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance issued September 8 projects a daily range of 26–31°C under partly sunny skies with isolated showers, driven by easterly to northeasterly winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale. This reflects the gradual southward push of cooler continental air, which has already trimmed daytime maxima by 1–2°C from early-week levels while limiting overnight radiative cooling. Supporting model runs and climatological analogs for early September show typical minima clustered near 26°C, with modest downside risk from increased cloud cover or brief showers that could suppress the low by 1°C. The absence of direct tropical cyclone influence (a system is tracking toward Japan) and low significant-rain probabilities further reduce volatility. Upcoming HKO updates and any revised model guidance on wind strength or shower timing represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift the 42% probability on 26°C versus the 30% on 25°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 10?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 10?
26°C 45%
25°C 40%
21°C or below 21%
31°C or higher 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
21°C or below
21%
22°C
19%
23°C
5%
24°C
18%
25°C
30%
26°C
45%
27°C
10%
28°C
11%
29°C
8%
30°C
19%
31°C or higher
20%
26°C 45%
25°C 40%
21°C or below 21%
31°C or higher 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
21°C or below
$86 Vol.
21%
22°C
$35 Vol.
19%
23°C
$44 Vol.
5%
24°C
$23 Vol.
18%
25°C
$13 Vol.
30%
26°C
$926 Vol.
45%
27°C
$10 Vol.
10%
28°C
$10 Vol.
11%
29°C
$66 Vol.
8%
30°C
$25 Vol.
19%
31°C or higher
$25 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Northeast monsoon flow and a stable weather pattern are anchoring trader consensus around a 25–26°C minimum for Hong Kong on September 10.**
Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance issued September 8 projects a daily range of 26–31°C under partly sunny skies with isolated showers, driven by easterly to northeasterly winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale. This reflects the gradual southward push of cooler continental air, which has already trimmed daytime maxima by 1–2°C from early-week levels while limiting overnight radiative cooling.
Supporting model runs and climatological analogs for early September show typical minima clustered near 26°C, with modest downside risk from increased cloud cover or brief showers that could suppress the low by 1°C. The absence of direct tropical cyclone influence (a system is tracking toward Japan) and low significant-rain probabilities further reduce volatility.
Upcoming HKO updates and any revised model guidance on wind strength or shower timing represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift the 42% probability on 26°C versus the 30% on 25°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,212End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Northeast monsoon flow and a stable weather pattern are anchoring trader consensus around a 25–26°C minimum for Hong Kong on September 10.**
Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance issued September 8 projects a daily range of 26–31°C under partly sunny skies with isolated showers, driven by easterly to northeasterly winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale. This reflects the gradual southward push of cooler continental air, which has already trimmed daytime maxima by 1–2°C from early-week levels while limiting overnight radiative cooling.
Supporting model runs and climatological analogs for early September show typical minima clustered near 26°C, with modest downside risk from increased cloud cover or brief showers that could suppress the low by 1°C. The absence of direct tropical cyclone influence (a system is tracking toward Japan) and low significant-rain probabilities further reduce volatility.
Upcoming HKO updates and any revised model guidance on wind strength or shower timing represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift the 42% probability on 26°C versus the 30% on 25°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 10 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,212End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Northeast monsoon flow and a stable weather pattern are anchoring trader consensus around a 25–26°C minimum for Hong Kong on September 10.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance issued September 8 projects a daily range of 26–31°C under partly sunny skies with isolated showers, driven by easterly to northeasterly winds of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale. This reflects the gradual southward push of cooler continental air, which has already trimmed daytime maxima by 1–2°C from early-week levels while limiting overnight radiative cooling. Supporting model runs and climatological analogs for early September show typical minima clustered near 26°C, with modest downside risk from increased cloud cover or brief showers that could suppress the low by 1°C. The absence of direct tropical cyclone influence (a system is tracking toward Japan) and low significant-rain probabilities further reduce volatility. Upcoming HKO updates and any revised model guidance on wind strength or shower timing represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift the 42% probability on 26°C versus the 30% on 25°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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