**Clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure system are positioning Cape Town for a minimum temperature near 13–14°C on September 6, 2026.** Official model guidance, including runs from the ECMWF and GFS, shows overnight lows bottoming out around 13°C in the pre-dawn hours amid dry conditions and dew points near 10–11°C, consistent with typical spring radiational cooling in the region’s Mediterranean climate. Historical September minima average near 11–12°C, but current observations and short-range forecasts indicate slightly milder air masses with no significant cold advection. This uncertainty in exact overnight cooling—driven by minor variations in wind speed and cloud cover—explains the market’s leading implied probability on 11°C or below (43.5%), followed closely by 13°C (31.5%), while warmer outcomes reflect lower trader confidence in substantial warming. Updated NHC/NOAA-equivalent regional guidance and next model cycles will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 6?
21°C or higher 95%
15°C 50%
17°C 50%
13°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
11°C or below
-
12°C
27%
13°C
32%
14°C
30%
15°C
50%
16°C
26%
17°C
50%
18°C
7%
19°C
6%
20°C
6%
21°C or higher
95%
21°C or higher 95%
15°C 50%
17°C 50%
13°C 32%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
11°C or below
$8 Vol.
-
12°C
$0 Vol.
27%
13°C
$0 Vol.
32%
14°C
$0 Vol.
30%
15°C
$0 Vol.
50%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
50%
18°C
$0 Vol.
7%
19°C
$0 Vol.
6%
20°C
$0 Vol.
6%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure system are positioning Cape Town for a minimum temperature near 13–14°C on September 6, 2026.** Official model guidance, including runs from the ECMWF and GFS, shows overnight lows bottoming out around 13°C in the pre-dawn hours amid dry conditions and dew points near 10–11°C, consistent with typical spring radiational cooling in the region’s Mediterranean climate. Historical September minima average near 11–12°C, but current observations and short-range forecasts indicate slightly milder air masses with no significant cold advection. This uncertainty in exact overnight cooling—driven by minor variations in wind speed and cloud cover—explains the market’s leading implied probability on 11°C or below (43.5%), followed closely by 13°C (31.5%), while warmer outcomes reflect lower trader confidence in substantial warming. Updated NHC/NOAA-equivalent regional guidance and next model cycles will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$8End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure system are positioning Cape Town for a minimum temperature near 13–14°C on September 6, 2026.** Official model guidance, including runs from the ECMWF and GFS, shows overnight lows bottoming out around 13°C in the pre-dawn hours amid dry conditions and dew points near 10–11°C, consistent with typical spring radiational cooling in the region’s Mediterranean climate. Historical September minima average near 11–12°C, but current observations and short-range forecasts indicate slightly milder air masses with no significant cold advection. This uncertainty in exact overnight cooling—driven by minor variations in wind speed and cloud cover—explains the market’s leading implied probability on 11°C or below (43.5%), followed closely by 13°C (31.5%), while warmer outcomes reflect lower trader confidence in substantial warming. Updated NHC/NOAA-equivalent regional guidance and next model cycles will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Clear skies and light winds under a stable high-pressure system are positioning Cape Town for a minimum temperature near 13–14°C on September 6, 2026.** Official model guidance, including runs from the ECMWF and GFS, shows overnight lows bottoming out around 13°C in the pre-dawn hours amid dry conditions and dew points near 10–11°C, consistent with typical spring radiational cooling in the region’s Mediterranean climate. Historical September minima average near 11–12°C, but current observations and short-range forecasts indicate slightly milder air masses with no significant cold advection. This uncertainty in exact overnight cooling—driven by minor variations in wind speed and cloud cover—explains the market’s leading implied probability on 11°C or below (43.5%), followed closely by 13°C (31.5%), while warmer outcomes reflect lower trader confidence in substantial warming. Updated NHC/NOAA-equivalent regional guidance and next model cycles will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions