**Clear skies and light southeasterly winds are driving the strong market consensus around a 10°C minimum in Cape Town on September 5.** Official forecasts from sources aligned with the South African Weather Service and global models (GFS) project overnight radiative cooling under cloud-free conditions, with temperatures bottoming near 10–11°C in the early morning hours before rising through the day to highs around 21°C. This aligns with typical early-spring climatology for the region, where calm nights following sunny afternoons allow efficient heat loss. Model consensus remains tight, though minor variations in wind speed or late-evening cloud development could nudge readings a degree higher or lower at official stations. Traders appear to view the 10°C threshold as the most probable outcome given current atmospheric conditions and the proximity to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 5?
10°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$1,950 Vol.
$1,950 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
9°C or below
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C or higher
No
10°C 100.0%
9°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$1,950 Vol.
$1,950 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
9°C or below
$155 Vol.
No
10°C
$620 Vol.
Yes
11°C
$321 Vol.
No
12°C
$229 Vol.
No
13°C
$217 Vol.
No
14°C
$200 Vol.
No
15°C
$66 Vol.
No
16°C
$35 Vol.
No
17°C
$35 Vol.
No
18°C
$35 Vol.
No
19°C or higher
$37 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light southeasterly winds are driving the strong market consensus around a 10°C minimum in Cape Town on September 5.** Official forecasts from sources aligned with the South African Weather Service and global models (GFS) project overnight radiative cooling under cloud-free conditions, with temperatures bottoming near 10–11°C in the early morning hours before rising through the day to highs around 21°C. This aligns with typical early-spring climatology for the region, where calm nights following sunny afternoons allow efficient heat loss. Model consensus remains tight, though minor variations in wind speed or late-evening cloud development could nudge readings a degree higher or lower at official stations. Traders appear to view the 10°C threshold as the most probable outcome given current atmospheric conditions and the proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$1,950End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies and light southeasterly winds are driving the strong market consensus around a 10°C minimum in Cape Town on September 5.** Official forecasts from sources aligned with the South African Weather Service and global models (GFS) project overnight radiative cooling under cloud-free conditions, with temperatures bottoming near 10–11°C in the early morning hours before rising through the day to highs around 21°C. This aligns with typical early-spring climatology for the region, where calm nights following sunny afternoons allow efficient heat loss. Model consensus remains tight, though minor variations in wind speed or late-evening cloud development could nudge readings a degree higher or lower at official stations. Traders appear to view the 10°C threshold as the most probable outcome given current atmospheric conditions and the proximity to resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,950End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Clear skies and light southeasterly winds are driving the strong market consensus around a 10°C minimum in Cape Town on September 5.** Official forecasts from sources aligned with the South African Weather Service and global models (GFS) project overnight radiative cooling under cloud-free conditions, with temperatures bottoming near 10–11°C in the early morning hours before rising through the day to highs around 21°C. This aligns with typical early-spring climatology for the region, where calm nights following sunny afternoons allow efficient heat loss. Model consensus remains tight, though minor variations in wind speed or late-evening cloud development could nudge readings a degree higher or lower at official stations. Traders appear to view the 10°C threshold as the most probable outcome given current atmospheric conditions and the proximity to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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