Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?

icon for How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?

<45 92%

45–54 4.3%

55–64 3.0%

65–74 2.9%

Polymarket
NEW

<45 92%

45–54 4.3%

55–64 3.0%

65–74 2.9%

Polymarket
NEW

<45

$1,294 Vol.

92%

45–54

$183 Vol.

4%

55–64

$138 Vol.

3%

65–74

$158 Vol.

3%

75–84

$117 Vol.

2%

85–94

$292 Vol.

2%

95+

$295 Vol.

2%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The Russian State Duma election on September 18–20, 2026, features a mixed electoral system allocating 225 seats by proportional representation above a 5% threshold and 225 via single-member districts. Trader consensus on fewer than 45 seats for the LDPR reflects the party's recent historical results near 7–10% nationally, its current holding of roughly 22 seats, and the tightly managed political environment that favors United Russia while constraining gains by systemic opposition parties. Recent polls show LDPR support fluctuating between 8% and 12%, with the party under Leonid Slutsky emphasizing nationalist and anti-migration themes in its "100 Days of Transformation" program, yet facing organizational strains in several regions. Factors supporting the strong probability of limited seats include the Kremlin's control over candidate registration and outcomes, competition from New People and the CPRF for second-place positioning, and LDPR's post-Zhirinovsky transition challenges. Scenarios that could shift probabilities include a Kremlin-directed boost to balance other factions or an unexpected surge in protest voting that alters official tallies.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$2,477
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The Russian State Duma election on September 18–20, 2026, features a mixed electoral system allocating 225 seats by proportional representation above a 5% threshold and 225 via single-member districts. Trader consensus on fewer than 45 seats for the LDPR reflects the party's recent historical results near 7–10% nationally, its current holding of roughly 22 seats, and the tightly managed political environment that favors United Russia while constraining gains by systemic opposition parties. Recent polls show LDPR support fluctuating between 8% and 12%, with the party under Leonid Slutsky emphasizing nationalist and anti-migration themes in its "100 Days of Transformation" program, yet facing organizational strains in several regions. Factors supporting the strong probability of limited seats include the Kremlin's control over candidate registration and outcomes, competition from New People and the CPRF for second-place positioning, and LDPR's post-Zhirinovsky transition challenges. Scenarios that could shift probabilities include a Kremlin-directed boost to balance other factions or an unexpected surge in protest voting that alters official tallies.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$2,477
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win fewer than 50 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win fewer than 50 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

46%
icon for Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

37%
icon for Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

93%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<45" at 92%, followed by "45–54" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?" is "<45" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "45–54" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many seats will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win in the next Russian legislative election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.