Trader sentiment around a new Ebola country confirmation before October 1 reflects the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak's rapid expansion across six DRC provinces and persistent cross-border risks, with roughly 6,300 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths reported as of early September. The market-implied 57.5% probability for Yes captures concerns over high population mobility along trade routes near South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi, weak contact tracing, and community transmission outside monitored zones, even as Uganda declared its outbreak over in late July and France recorded only an isolated imported case. Recent updates show continued growth in Ituri and neighboring areas, underscoring surveillance gaps that could enable fresh spillovers in the remaining weeks before the cutoff. Upcoming catalysts include any border screening detections or health ministry announcements that might shift the consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEbola: new country confirmed before October 1?
Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1?
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Oct 1, 2026
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Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Trader sentiment around a new Ebola country confirmation before October 1 reflects the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak's rapid expansion across six DRC provinces and persistent cross-border risks, with roughly 6,300 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths reported as of early September. The market-implied 57.5% probability for Yes captures concerns over high population mobility along trade routes near South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi, weak contact tracing, and community transmission outside monitored zones, even as Uganda declared its outbreak over in late July and France recorded only an isolated imported case. Recent updates show continued growth in Ituri and neighboring areas, underscoring surveillance gaps that could enable fresh spillovers in the remaining weeks before the cutoff. Upcoming catalysts include any border screening detections or health ministry announcements that might shift the consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volume
$132End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Trader sentiment around a new Ebola country confirmation before October 1 reflects the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak's rapid expansion across six DRC provinces and persistent cross-border risks, with roughly 6,300 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths reported as of early September. The market-implied 57.5% probability for Yes captures concerns over high population mobility along trade routes near South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi, weak contact tracing, and community transmission outside monitored zones, even as Uganda declared its outbreak over in late July and France recorded only an isolated imported case. Recent updates show continued growth in Ituri and neighboring areas, underscoring surveillance gaps that could enable fresh spillovers in the remaining weeks before the cutoff. Upcoming catalysts include any border screening detections or health ministry announcements that might shift the consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$132End Date
Oct 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment around a new Ebola country confirmation before October 1 reflects the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak's rapid expansion across six DRC provinces and persistent cross-border risks, with roughly 6,300 confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths reported as of early September. The market-implied 57.5% probability for Yes captures concerns over high population mobility along trade routes near South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi, weak contact tracing, and community transmission outside monitored zones, even as Uganda declared its outbreak over in late July and France recorded only an isolated imported case. Recent updates show continued growth in Ituri and neighboring areas, underscoring surveillance gaps that could enable fresh spillovers in the remaining weeks before the cutoff. Upcoming catalysts include any border screening detections or health ministry announcements that might shift the consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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