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icon for Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Valérie Hamel 36%

Frédéric Poulin 22%

Mathieu Rivest 12%

Nancy St-Pierre 1.7%

Polymarket
NEW

Valérie Hamel 36%

Frédéric Poulin 22%

Mathieu Rivest 12%

Nancy St-Pierre 1.7%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Valérie Hamel

Valérie Hamel

$669 Vol.

36%

icon for Frédéric Poulin

Frédéric Poulin

$185 Vol.

22%

icon for Mathieu Rivest

Mathieu Rivest

$189 Vol.

18%

icon for Nancy St-Pierre

Nancy St-Pierre

$762 Vol.

2%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**The Côte-du-Sud riding features a tight three-way contest among the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, and Parti Conservateur du Québec ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election.** Incumbent Mathieu Rivest (CAQ) seeks re-election against PQ candidate Valérie Hamel, a nurse practitioner focused on local health services, PCQ candidate Frédéric Poulin, an agricultural producer and former mayor, and PLQ candidate Nancy St-Pierre. Recent projections from Qc125 place PQ, CAQ, and PCQ within a few points of each other locally, consistent with broader provincial polling showing the PQ leading overall while the CAQ narrows the gap. The race remains close due to the riding’s mixed rural-suburban profile, where regional priorities such as healthcare access, agricultural support, and economic development resonate differently across voter groups. Candidate nominations finalized over the summer, with the writ dropped in late August, leaving limited time for major shifts before advance voting begins September 27–28. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, pricing the top contenders near parity while assigning lower probabilities to the PLQ and others. Late-campaign events, including local debates or shifts in provincial party momentum, could separate the field before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$1,804
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:46 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**The Côte-du-Sud riding features a tight three-way contest among the Parti Québécois, Coalition Avenir Québec, and Parti Conservateur du Québec ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election.** Incumbent Mathieu Rivest (CAQ) seeks re-election against PQ candidate Valérie Hamel, a nurse practitioner focused on local health services, PCQ candidate Frédéric Poulin, an agricultural producer and former mayor, and PLQ candidate Nancy St-Pierre. Recent projections from Qc125 place PQ, CAQ, and PCQ within a few points of each other locally, consistent with broader provincial polling showing the PQ leading overall while the CAQ narrows the gap. The race remains close due to the riding’s mixed rural-suburban profile, where regional priorities such as healthcare access, agricultural support, and economic development resonate differently across voter groups. Candidate nominations finalized over the summer, with the writ dropped in late August, leaving limited time for major shifts before advance voting begins September 27–28. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, pricing the top contenders near parity while assigning lower probabilities to the PLQ and others. Late-campaign events, including local debates or shifts in provincial party momentum, could separate the field before election day.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$1,804
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:46 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Valérie Hamel" at 36%, followed by "Frédéric Poulin" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Valérie Hamel" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Frédéric Poulin" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Côte-du-Sud Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.