**Baja California Sur's 2027 gubernatorial contest, scheduled for June 6, remains fluid with no dominant frontrunner.** Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias (PAN) leads market pricing at 30.5%, followed by Manuel Cota Cárdenas (24.8%) and Christian Agúndez Gómez (15.0%), while Morena-aligned figures such as Milena Quiroga Romero sit lower. Traders price the field this way because Morena holds a statewide party-ID edge yet faces an open internal selection process among several competitive aspirants, including Quiroga, Cota, and Agúndez, none of whom has consolidated support. PAN has coalesced around Pelayo as its standard-bearer, giving the opposition a clearer path in early positioning. Recent mid-2026 surveys showed Quiroga ahead in Morena preferences and Pelayo leading PAN options, but overall vote intention remains divided and sensitive to the outcome of coalition negotiations and candidate definitions. With more than a dozen listed contenders and probabilities clustered below one-third, the market reflects uncertainty over which Morena contender emerges, potential cross-party alliances, and the absence of decisive polling or events that would shift momentum ahead of the 2027 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrancisco Pelayo Covarrubias 31%
Manuel Cota Cárdenas 24.8%
Christian Agúndez Gómez 16%
Milena Quiroga Romero 10%
$14,809 Vol.
$14,809 Vol.
Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias
31%
Manuel Cota Cárdenas
25%
Christian Agúndez Gómez
16%
Milena Quiroga Romero
10%
José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar
7%
Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado
6%
Antonio Manríquez
5%
Edith Aguilar Villavicencio
5%
Roxana Higuera
4%
Diana Von Borstel Luna
4%
José Saúl González Núñez
4%
Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón
2%
Susana Zataraín García
1%
Ricardo Barroso Agramont
1%
Fabricio del Castillo
<1%
Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros
<1%
Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias 31%
Manuel Cota Cárdenas 24.8%
Christian Agúndez Gómez 16%
Milena Quiroga Romero 10%
$14,809 Vol.
$14,809 Vol.
Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias
31%
Manuel Cota Cárdenas
25%
Christian Agúndez Gómez
16%
Milena Quiroga Romero
10%
José Rigoberto Mares Aguilar
7%
Juan Alberto Valdivia Alvarado
6%
Antonio Manríquez
5%
Edith Aguilar Villavicencio
5%
Roxana Higuera
4%
Diana Von Borstel Luna
4%
José Saúl González Núñez
4%
Jesús Alberto Alvarado Aragón
2%
Susana Zataraín García
1%
Ricardo Barroso Agramont
1%
Fabricio del Castillo
<1%
Guadalupe Saldaña Cisneros
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 7:18 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Baja California Sur gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Baja California Sur and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Baja California Sur and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Baja California Sur's 2027 gubernatorial contest, scheduled for June 6, remains fluid with no dominant frontrunner.** Francisco Pelayo Covarrubias (PAN) leads market pricing at 30.5%, followed by Manuel Cota Cárdenas (24.8%) and Christian Agúndez Gómez (15.0%), while Morena-aligned figures such as Milena Quiroga Romero sit lower. Traders price the field this way because Morena holds a statewide party-ID edge yet faces an open internal selection process among several competitive aspirants, including Quiroga, Cota, and Agúndez, none of whom has consolidated support. PAN has coalesced around Pelayo as its standard-bearer, giving the opposition a clearer path in early positioning. Recent mid-2026 surveys showed Quiroga ahead in Morena preferences and Pelayo leading PAN options, but overall vote intention remains divided and sensitive to the outcome of coalition negotiations and candidate definitions. With more than a dozen listed contenders and probabilities clustered below one-third, the market reflects uncertainty over which Morena contender emerges, potential cross-party alliances, and the absence of decisive polling or events that would shift momentum ahead of the 2027 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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