The Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) holds an 78% implied probability as the leading outcome in the September 14, 2026, parliamentary election, reflecting trader assessment of its recent consolidation of support. Multiple defections from the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) to the BFP, including interim Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua’s August oath-taking as BFP chair and endorsements from dozens of mayors and local officials across Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Basilan, and Tawi-Tawi, have strengthened the party’s organizational reach ahead of the vote. The BFP’s designation by Comelec as the dominant minority party alongside UBJP’s majority status, combined with its fielding of extensive candidate slates and unopposed district wins, underpins current pricing. Low probabilities for postponement or minor parties align with confirmed election preparations and the absence of further legal delays.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBFP 78%
UBJP 21%
Election Postponed/Canceled 1.0%
BGC <1%
$79,502 Vol.
$79,502 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
BFP
78%
UBJP
21%
Election Postponed/Canceled
1%
BGC
1%
LBIAA
<1%
ROHOSUMA
<1%
BEST PARTY
<1%
PRO BANGSAMORO PARTY
<1%
TPWC
<1%
RSL
<1%
DTLO
<1%
ABOT
<1%
BAPA
<1%
ISAMA
<1%
MAHARDIKA
<1%
MORO AKO
<1%
MUSHAWARA
<1%
PBB
<1%
RAAYAT DEMOCRATIC PARTY
<1%
C4P
<1%
RSEU
<1%
THE ROYALS
<1%
ROHOSUPA
<1%
ISLPI
<1%
BFP 78%
UBJP 21%
Election Postponed/Canceled 1.0%
BGC <1%
$79,502 Vol.
$79,502 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
BFP
$14,237 Vol.
78%
UBJP
$48,724 Vol.
21%
Election Postponed/Canceled
$1,058 Vol.
1%
BGC
$1,099 Vol.
1%
LBIAA
$967 Vol.
<1%
ROHOSUMA
$1,184 Vol.
<1%
BEST PARTY
$724 Vol.
<1%
PRO BANGSAMORO PARTY
$743 Vol.
<1%
TPWC
$541 Vol.
<1%
RSL
$552 Vol.
<1%
DTLO
$738 Vol.
<1%
ABOT
$671 Vol.
<1%
BAPA
$756 Vol.
<1%
ISAMA
$662 Vol.
<1%
MAHARDIKA
$707 Vol.
<1%
MORO AKO
$662 Vol.
<1%
MUSHAWARA
$701 Vol.
<1%
PBB
$596 Vol.
<1%
RAAYAT DEMOCRATIC PARTY
$637 Vol.
<1%
C4P
$789 Vol.
<1%
RSEU
$808 Vol.
<1%
THE ROYALS
$627 Vol.
<1%
ROHOSUPA
$642 Vol.
<1%
ISLPI
$673 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Bangsamoro Parliament are scheduled to take place on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).The Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) holds an 78% implied probability as the leading outcome in the September 14, 2026, parliamentary election, reflecting trader assessment of its recent consolidation of support. Multiple defections from the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) to the BFP, including interim Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua’s August oath-taking as BFP chair and endorsements from dozens of mayors and local officials across Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Basilan, and Tawi-Tawi, have strengthened the party’s organizational reach ahead of the vote. The BFP’s designation by Comelec as the dominant minority party alongside UBJP’s majority status, combined with its fielding of extensive candidate slates and unopposed district wins, underpins current pricing. Low probabilities for postponement or minor parties align with confirmed election preparations and the absence of further legal delays.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Bangsamoro Parliament are scheduled to take place on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 10:50 PM ET
Volume
$79,502End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 10:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Bangsamoro Parliament are scheduled to take place on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).The Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) holds an 78% implied probability as the leading outcome in the September 14, 2026, parliamentary election, reflecting trader assessment of its recent consolidation of support. Multiple defections from the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) to the BFP, including interim Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua’s August oath-taking as BFP chair and endorsements from dozens of mayors and local officials across Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Basilan, and Tawi-Tawi, have strengthened the party’s organizational reach ahead of the vote. The BFP’s designation by Comelec as the dominant minority party alongside UBJP’s majority status, combined with its fielding of extensive candidate slates and unopposed district wins, underpins current pricing. Low probabilities for postponement or minor parties align with confirmed election preparations and the absence of further legal delays.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Bangsamoro Parliament are scheduled to take place on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
Volume
$79,502End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 10:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) holds an 78% implied probability as the leading outcome in the September 14, 2026, parliamentary election, reflecting trader assessment of its recent consolidation of support. Multiple defections from the United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) to the BFP, including interim Chief Minister Abdulraof Macacua’s August oath-taking as BFP chair and endorsements from dozens of mayors and local officials across Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Basilan, and Tawi-Tawi, have strengthened the party’s organizational reach ahead of the vote. The BFP’s designation by Comelec as the dominant minority party alongside UBJP’s majority status, combined with its fielding of extensive candidate slates and unopposed district wins, underpins current pricing. Low probabilities for postponement or minor parties align with confirmed election preparations and the absence of further legal delays.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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