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Climate & Science·Energy

Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

icon for Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?
Climate & Science·Energy

Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

$13,264 Vol.

Oct 1, 2026
Polymarket

$13,264 Vol.

Polymarket

California (CAISO)

$1,887 Vol.

10%

Texas (ERCOT)

$2,225 Vol.

6%

Central US (SPP)

$733 Vol.

56%

Midwest (MISO)

$6,727 Vol.

19%

Mid-Atlantic (PJM)

$82 Vol.

15%

New York (NYISO)

$1,495 Vol.

13%

New England (ISO-NE)

$115 Vol.

9%

This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official ERCOT communication — its news releases (https://www.ercot.com/news/releases), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 17 states across the central and western U.S. — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Central US" in the title is a general label — only an SPP declaration counts, and emergencies in other central-U.S. grid operators do not qualify. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official SPP communication — its press releases (https://www.spp.org/newsroom/press-releases/), Grid Notices, or its real-time Current Grid Conditions page — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 15 U.S. states from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Midwest" in the title is a general label — only a MISO declaration counts, and emergencies in other grid operators do not qualify. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official MISO communication — its Media Center (https://www.misoenergy.org/meet-miso/media-center/), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if PJM Interconnection declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) anywhere across its footprint from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. PJM serves all or part of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia; a qualifying declaration anywhere in that footprint counts, and "Mid-Atlantic" in the title is only a general label. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official PJM communication — its Inside Lines blog (https://insidelines.pjm.com/), emergency-procedure or market messages, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official NYISO communication — its News & Media page (https://www.nyiso.com/news-and-media), market notices, or real-time system-conditions postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if ISO New England (ISO-NE) — the grid operator for the six New England states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official ISO New England communication — its press releases (https://www.iso-ne.com/about/news-media/press-releases), market notices, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".Rising electricity demand from data centers and AI loads, combined with variable late-summer weather, remains the main driver of grid stress into early fall. NERC’s 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment highlighted elevated risks in regions like PJM and parts of MISO and SPP where reserve margins can drop sharply under high temperatures or generator outages, prompting prior DOE emergency orders during June–July heat. Current U.S. outage rates sit near 0.13% as of September 5, primarily localized storm-related events rather than system-wide shortfalls. El Niño conditions may moderate Atlantic hurricane activity but still allow heat or convective storms that spike demand or force derates. Traders should monitor NOAA forecasts, NERC or regional operator alerts, and any updates on forced outage rates through the end of September for shifts in implied emergency probability.

This market resolves "Yes" if the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 17 states across the central and western U.S. — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Central US" in the title is a general label — only an SPP declaration counts, and emergencies in other central-U.S. grid operators do not qualify.

A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.

The declaration will be confirmed by any official SPP communication — its press releases (https://www.spp.org/newsroom/press-releases/), Grid Notices, or its real-time Current Grid Conditions page — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.

Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 17 states across the central and western U.S. — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Central US" in the title is a general label — only an SPP declaration counts, and emergencies in other central-U.S. grid operators do not qualify. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official SPP communication — its press releases (https://www.spp.org/newsroom/press-releases/), Grid Notices, or its real-time Current Grid Conditions page — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Volume
$13,264
End Date
Oct 2, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market resolves "Yes" if the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), which operates the electric grid serving most of California, declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM PT on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official CAISO communication — its newsroom (https://www.caiso.com/about/news), market notices, or real-time system-condition (Today's Outlook) postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official ERCOT communication — its news releases (https://www.ercot.com/news/releases), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 17 states across the central and western U.S. — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Central US" in the title is a general label — only an SPP declaration counts, and emergencies in other central-U.S. grid operators do not qualify. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official SPP communication — its press releases (https://www.spp.org/newsroom/press-releases/), Grid Notices, or its real-time Current Grid Conditions page — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 15 U.S. states from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Midwest" in the title is a general label — only a MISO declaration counts, and emergencies in other grid operators do not qualify. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official MISO communication — its Media Center (https://www.misoenergy.org/meet-miso/media-center/), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if PJM Interconnection declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) anywhere across its footprint from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. PJM serves all or part of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia; a qualifying declaration anywhere in that footprint counts, and "Mid-Atlantic" in the title is only a general label. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official PJM communication — its Inside Lines blog (https://insidelines.pjm.com/), emergency-procedure or market messages, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official NYISO communication — its News & Media page (https://www.nyiso.com/news-and-media), market notices, or real-time system-conditions postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if ISO New England (ISO-NE) — the grid operator for the six New England states of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) at any point from this market's creation through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official ISO New England communication — its press releases (https://www.iso-ne.com/about/news-media/press-releases), market notices, or real-time system-status postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".Rising electricity demand from data centers and AI loads, combined with variable late-summer weather, remains the main driver of grid stress into early fall. NERC’s 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment highlighted elevated risks in regions like PJM and parts of MISO and SPP where reserve margins can drop sharply under high temperatures or generator outages, prompting prior DOE emergency orders during June–July heat. Current U.S. outage rates sit near 0.13% as of September 5, primarily localized storm-related events rather than system-wide shortfalls. El Niño conditions may moderate Atlantic hurricane activity but still allow heat or convective storms that spike demand or force derates. Traders should monitor NOAA forecasts, NERC or regional operator alerts, and any updates on forced outage rates through the end of September for shifts in implied emergency probability.

This market resolves "Yes" if the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 17 states across the central and western U.S. — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Central US" in the title is a general label — only an SPP declaration counts, and emergencies in other central-U.S. grid operators do not qualify.

A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it.

The declaration will be confirmed by any official SPP communication — its press releases (https://www.spp.org/newsroom/press-releases/), Grid Notices, or its real-time Current Grid Conditions page — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward.

Otherwise, this market resolves "No".This market resolves "Yes" if the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 17 states across the central and western U.S. — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Central US" in the title is a general label — only an SPP declaration counts, and emergencies in other central-U.S. grid operators do not qualify. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official SPP communication — its press releases (https://www.spp.org/newsroom/press-releases/), Grid Notices, or its real-time Current Grid Conditions page — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
Volume
$13,264
End Date
Oct 2, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Central US (SPP)" at 56%, followed by "Midwest (MISO)" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?" has generated $13.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?" is "Central US (SPP)" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Midwest (MISO)" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.