The U.S. conducted a targeted January 2026 operation in Venezuela to capture Nicolás Maduro, framed by the Trump administration as enforcement of a revived Monroe Doctrine and counternarcotics priorities under the "Donroe Doctrine," but subsequent activity has centered on joint anti-cartel missions with partners such as Ecuador and Colombia, repeated lethal strikes on suspected trafficking vessels, and sanctions pressure on Cuba and Nicaragua rather than additional ground invasions. As of early September 2026, no new unilateral military incursions into sovereign Latin American territory have materialized, with Pentagon statements and SOUTHCOM actions emphasizing cooperation agreements, status-of-forces deals, and disruption of designated terrorist organizations over large-scale deployments. Trader consensus at 91% for no invasion reflects the absence of escalatory triggers in recent months, the emphasis on bilateral arrangements with right-leaning regional governments, and the lack of congressional authorization or public signals for broader combat operations before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$276,714 Vol.
$276,714 Vol.
$276,714 Vol.
$276,714 Vol.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. conducted a targeted January 2026 operation in Venezuela to capture Nicolás Maduro, framed by the Trump administration as enforcement of a revived Monroe Doctrine and counternarcotics priorities under the "Donroe Doctrine," but subsequent activity has centered on joint anti-cartel missions with partners such as Ecuador and Colombia, repeated lethal strikes on suspected trafficking vessels, and sanctions pressure on Cuba and Nicaragua rather than additional ground invasions. As of early September 2026, no new unilateral military incursions into sovereign Latin American territory have materialized, with Pentagon statements and SOUTHCOM actions emphasizing cooperation agreements, status-of-forces deals, and disruption of designated terrorist organizations over large-scale deployments. Trader consensus at 91% for no invasion reflects the absence of escalatory triggers in recent months, the emphasis on bilateral arrangements with right-leaning regional governments, and the lack of congressional authorization or public signals for broader combat operations before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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