**Traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to “No” on the US capturing another world leader in 2026 because the major operations that removed or eliminated foreign heads of state occurred early in the year, with no comparable actions underway or signaled for the remainder of the period.** In January 2026, U.S. forces executed Operation Absolute Resolve, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas and transporting them to New York to face narco-terrorism charges. The following month, joint U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials during the opening phase of the conflict with Iran. Since those events, U.S. military activity has centered on sustained airstrikes and naval interdiction against alleged drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, plus limited joint ground operations with partners such as Ecuador and Colombia against cartel networks. These efforts have not targeted sitting heads of state for capture or removal. Ongoing priorities in the second half of 2026 emphasize counter-narcotics enforcement, force posture adjustments after the Iran campaign, and diplomatic or lower-intensity pressure rather than additional high-profile leadership extractions. Absent new intelligence-driven planning or public commitments to seize another foreign leader before year-end, the market reflects broad consensus that no such outcome is likely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
6% chance
$81,303 Vol.
$81,303 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$81,303 Vol.
$81,303 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to “No” on the US capturing another world leader in 2026 because the major operations that removed or eliminated foreign heads of state occurred early in the year, with no comparable actions underway or signaled for the remainder of the period.**
In January 2026, U.S. forces executed Operation Absolute Resolve, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas and transporting them to New York to face narco-terrorism charges. The following month, joint U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials during the opening phase of the conflict with Iran. Since those events, U.S. military activity has centered on sustained airstrikes and naval interdiction against alleged drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, plus limited joint ground operations with partners such as Ecuador and Colombia against cartel networks. These efforts have not targeted sitting heads of state for capture or removal. Ongoing priorities in the second half of 2026 emphasize counter-narcotics enforcement, force posture adjustments after the Iran campaign, and diplomatic or lower-intensity pressure rather than additional high-profile leadership extractions. Absent new intelligence-driven planning or public commitments to seize another foreign leader before year-end, the market reflects broad consensus that no such outcome is likely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Volume
$81,303End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to “No” on the US capturing another world leader in 2026 because the major operations that removed or eliminated foreign heads of state occurred early in the year, with no comparable actions underway or signaled for the remainder of the period.**
In January 2026, U.S. forces executed Operation Absolute Resolve, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas and transporting them to New York to face narco-terrorism charges. The following month, joint U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials during the opening phase of the conflict with Iran. Since those events, U.S. military activity has centered on sustained airstrikes and naval interdiction against alleged drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, plus limited joint ground operations with partners such as Ecuador and Colombia against cartel networks. These efforts have not targeted sitting heads of state for capture or removal. Ongoing priorities in the second half of 2026 emphasize counter-narcotics enforcement, force posture adjustments after the Iran campaign, and diplomatic or lower-intensity pressure rather than additional high-profile leadership extractions. Absent new intelligence-driven planning or public commitments to seize another foreign leader before year-end, the market reflects broad consensus that no such outcome is likely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$81,303End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to “No” on the US capturing another world leader in 2026 because the major operations that removed or eliminated foreign heads of state occurred early in the year, with no comparable actions underway or signaled for the remainder of the period.** In January 2026, U.S. forces executed Operation Absolute Resolve, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas and transporting them to New York to face narco-terrorism charges. The following month, joint U.S.-Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior officials during the opening phase of the conflict with Iran. Since those events, U.S. military activity has centered on sustained airstrikes and naval interdiction against alleged drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, plus limited joint ground operations with partners such as Ecuador and Colombia against cartel networks. These efforts have not targeted sitting heads of state for capture or removal. Ongoing priorities in the second half of 2026 emphasize counter-narcotics enforcement, force posture adjustments after the Iran campaign, and diplomatic or lower-intensity pressure rather than additional high-profile leadership extractions. Absent new intelligence-driven planning or public commitments to seize another foreign leader before year-end, the market reflects broad consensus that no such outcome is likely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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