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Politics·James Comey

Who will be arrested before 2027?

icon for Who will be arrested before 2027?
Politics·James Comey

Who will be arrested before 2027?

$406,233 Vol.

Polymarket

$406,233 Vol.

Polymarket

Anthony Fauci

$160,441 Vol.

11%

John Brennan

$22,244 Vol.

21%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$23,157 Vol.

11%

Adam Schiff

$16,570 Vol.

3%

Barack Obama

$29,276 Vol.

2%

James Comey

$10,293 Vol.

9%

Mahmoud Khalil

$1,328 Vol.

20%

James Clapper

$6,774 Vol.

12%

Letitia James

$3,047 Vol.

10%

Hillary Clinton

$26,070 Vol.

3%

Bill Clinton

$2,726 Vol.

1%

Loretta Lynch

$2,411 Vol.

9%

Susan Rice

$304 Vol.

10%

Candace Owens

$268 Vol.

8%

Gavin Newsom

$39,300 Vol.

3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$1,936 Vol.

5%

John Kerry

$503 Vol.

2%

Pam Bondi

$2,179 Vol.

2%

Tom Homan

$41,297 Vol.

4%

Kash Patel

$598 Vol.

2%

Brandon Johnson

$3,284 Vol.

12%

Lisa Cook

$3,950 Vol.

3%

Lee Jun-seok

$794 Vol.

12%

Joe Biden

$7,481 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market assigns the highest probabilities to former intelligence officials such as John Brennan amid active federal grand jury proceedings and congressional scrutiny of prior agency actions. Other figures including Anthony Fauci face attention from recent Senate testimony and related investigations into past policy decisions, while activist Mahmoud Khalil draws focus from ongoing immigration enforcement and court proceedings. Most listed individuals carry low implied probabilities below 20 percent due to the short window until December 31, 2026, procedural requirements for indictments, and historical patterns of limited arrests among senior former officials. Key upcoming catalysts include potential grand jury outcomes, appeals rulings, and federal enforcement priorities that could shift specific contracts before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$406,233
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus in this multi-outcome market assigns the highest probabilities to former intelligence officials such as John Brennan amid active federal grand jury proceedings and congressional scrutiny of prior agency actions. Other figures including Anthony Fauci face attention from recent Senate testimony and related investigations into past policy decisions, while activist Mahmoud Khalil draws focus from ongoing immigration enforcement and court proceedings. Most listed individuals carry low implied probabilities below 20 percent due to the short window until December 31, 2026, procedural requirements for indictments, and historical patterns of limited arrests among senior former officials. Key upcoming catalysts include potential grand jury outcomes, appeals rulings, and federal enforcement priorities that could shift specific contracts before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$406,233
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be arrested before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 24 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Brennan" at 21%, followed by "Mahmoud Khalil" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 21¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will be arrested before 2027?" has generated $406.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will be arrested before 2027?," browse the 24 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be arrested before 2027?" is "John Brennan" at 21%, meaning the market assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mahmoud Khalil" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be arrested before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.