North Korea’s entrenched two-state doctrine, constitutional changes removing unification language, and sustained focus on nuclear expansion plus conventional modernization have reinforced trader expectations that Pyongyang will avoid a full-scale invasion of South Korea through 2026. Recent months show continued missile tests, weapons drills, and border fortifications alongside routine rejections of Seoul’s “peace-first” outreach under President Lee Jae Myung, yet no verified surge in invasion-specific logistics or troop movements. South Korea’s robust defenses, U.S. extended deterrence commitments, and trilateral coordination with Japan further raise the costs of any large conventional assault. While the implied probability of “no” exceeds 90 percent, markets could shift on sudden escalation from miscalculation during joint exercises, a major leadership transition in Pyongyang, or unforeseen great-power realignments that alter North Korea’s risk calculus.