Ground beef prices have remained elevated near record levels through mid-2026, averaging $6.89 per pound nationally in July according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, driven by the U.S. cattle herd shrinking to its smallest size in 75 years amid prolonged drought, elevated feed and input costs, and prior herd liquidation. Tight domestic supplies of lean trimmings have supported retail prices despite rising imports, which reached record volumes in the first half of the year and are being further expanded via policy measures to address consumer costs. Strong consumer demand has held firm even as broader inflation moderates, while emerging risks such as the New World screwworm outbreak add downside pressure to supply recovery. Herd rebuilding efforts are underway but inherently slow given the multi-year cattle cycle, keeping market-implied odds for sustained high prices into 2027 and beyond anchored to ongoing supply constraints rather than short-term volatility.