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icon for Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?
Elections·Italy

Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?

icon for Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?
Elections·Italy

Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?

87% chance
Polymarket
NEW
87% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market. If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Futuro Nazionale, founded in February 2026 by former League MEP Roberto Vannacci, has shown sustained momentum in Italian voting-intention surveys ahead of the next general election due no later than December 2027. Multiple recent polls from SWG, YouTrend, BiDiMedia and others place the party at 7.5–8 percent nationally, ahead of Forza Italia and the League while drawing support from parts of the centre-right electorate on issues of immigration and national identity. This performance follows rapid organisational growth, including parliamentary defections and membership gains, positioning the movement as a durable fourth force. Traders therefore assign high implied probability to it clearing the 3 percent threshold, reflecting the gap between current polling averages and the low bar for relevance under Italy’s electoral rules.

Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.

If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market.

Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market.

If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.

If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market. If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,701
End Date
Dec 23, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 6:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market. If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Futuro Nazionale, founded in February 2026 by former League MEP Roberto Vannacci, has shown sustained momentum in Italian voting-intention surveys ahead of the next general election due no later than December 2027. Multiple recent polls from SWG, YouTrend, BiDiMedia and others place the party at 7.5–8 percent nationally, ahead of Forza Italia and the League while drawing support from parts of the centre-right electorate on issues of immigration and national identity. This performance follows rapid organisational growth, including parliamentary defections and membership gains, positioning the movement as a durable fourth force. Traders therefore assign high implied probability to it clearing the 3 percent threshold, reflecting the gap between current polling averages and the low bar for relevance under Italy’s electoral rules.

Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.

If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market.

Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market.

If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.

If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market. If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,701
End Date
Dec 23, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 6:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 87% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 87¢, the market collectively assigns a 87% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?" is 87% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 87% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.