Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain exceptional steps reserved for acute crises, and recent developments have not reached that threshold. In August 2026, U.S. actions against Brazil’s ambassador involved a visa revocation in a reciprocal dispute over appointments and diplomatic visits, yet officials explicitly avoided expulsion and left room for reversal. Petitions in Canada and Namibia urging host governments to declare U.S. envoys persona non grata have gathered signatures but produced no official moves. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls and vacancies have prompted complaints from some nations without escalating to expulsions. Traders price the “No” outcome at 78 percent because historical precedent and current bilateral frictions show host countries prefer measured responses over outright removals before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
9% chance
$33,023 Vol.
$33,023 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain exceptional steps reserved for acute crises, and recent developments have not reached that threshold. In August 2026, U.S. actions against Brazil’s ambassador involved a visa revocation in a reciprocal dispute over appointments and diplomatic visits, yet officials explicitly avoided expulsion and left room for reversal. Petitions in Canada and Namibia urging host governments to declare U.S. envoys persona non grata have gathered signatures but produced no official moves. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls and vacancies have prompted complaints from some nations without escalating to expulsions. Traders price the “No” outcome at 78 percent because historical precedent and current bilateral frictions show host countries prefer measured responses over outright removals before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volume
$33,023End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain exceptional steps reserved for acute crises, and recent developments have not reached that threshold. In August 2026, U.S. actions against Brazil’s ambassador involved a visa revocation in a reciprocal dispute over appointments and diplomatic visits, yet officials explicitly avoided expulsion and left room for reversal. Petitions in Canada and Namibia urging host governments to declare U.S. envoys persona non grata have gathered signatures but produced no official moves. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls and vacancies have prompted complaints from some nations without escalating to expulsions. Traders price the “No” outcome at 78 percent because historical precedent and current bilateral frictions show host countries prefer measured responses over outright removals before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,023End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic expulsions of U.S. ambassadors remain exceptional steps reserved for acute crises, and recent developments have not reached that threshold. In August 2026, U.S. actions against Brazil’s ambassador involved a visa revocation in a reciprocal dispute over appointments and diplomatic visits, yet officials explicitly avoided expulsion and left room for reversal. Petitions in Canada and Namibia urging host governments to declare U.S. envoys persona non grata have gathered signatures but produced no official moves. Broader U.S. ambassadorial recalls and vacancies have prompted complaints from some nations without escalating to expulsions. Traders price the “No” outcome at 78 percent because historical precedent and current bilateral frictions show host countries prefer measured responses over outright removals before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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