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icon for Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

icon for Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

6% chance
Polymarket

$76,430 Vol.

6% chance
Polymarket

$76,430 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No country is expected to leave BRICS in 2026, with the 93.7% implied probability reflecting sustained member engagement and institutional continuity.** India holds the rotating presidency and is hosting the September 12-13 New Delhi summit focused on resilience, innovation, cooperation, and sustainability, while actively participating in all initiatives. Official statements from the Brazilian presidency and fact-checks have rejected circulating rumors of an Indian exit tied to U.S. trade talks. Although internal divergences have prompted a pause on further expansion and highlighted differing geopolitical priorities among members, no government has issued a withdrawal notice or denunciation. Historical precedent shows only prospective members like Argentina declining to join, not existing ones departing, supporting trader consensus that formal exits remain improbable absent major unforeseen shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal.

The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$76,430
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No country is expected to leave BRICS in 2026, with the 93.7% implied probability reflecting sustained member engagement and institutional continuity.** India holds the rotating presidency and is hosting the September 12-13 New Delhi summit focused on resilience, innovation, cooperation, and sustainability, while actively participating in all initiatives. Official statements from the Brazilian presidency and fact-checks have rejected circulating rumors of an Indian exit tied to U.S. trade talks. Although internal divergences have prompted a pause on further expansion and highlighted differing geopolitical priorities among members, no government has issued a withdrawal notice or denunciation. Historical precedent shows only prospective members like Argentina declining to join, not existing ones departing, supporting trader consensus that formal exits remain improbable absent major unforeseen shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal.

The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from BRICS or provides an official notice of denunciation to BRICS between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and BRICS; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$76,430
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 6% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 6¢, the market collectively assigns a 6% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?" has generated $76.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?" is 6% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 6% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.