Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore's strong position in Wisconsin's 4th congressional district reflects the area's entrenched Democratic leanings, centered on Milwaukee County, where she secured 74.8% in the prior cycle. Moore advanced comfortably through the August 2026 Democratic primary against a challenger, while Republican Tim Rogers emerged from a low-turnout GOP contest to face her and an independent in the November 3 general election. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the district's history of delivering large margins for the party. Trader consensus on the Democratic outcome incorporates this structural advantage, though improbable late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unexpected national realignment could still alter the race dynamics before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-04 House Election Winner
WI-04 House Election Winner
$36,788 Vol.
$36,788 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
1%
$36,788 Vol.
$36,788 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,357 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$22,431 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore's strong position in Wisconsin's 4th congressional district reflects the area's entrenched Democratic leanings, centered on Milwaukee County, where she secured 74.8% in the prior cycle. Moore advanced comfortably through the August 2026 Democratic primary against a challenger, while Republican Tim Rogers emerged from a low-turnout GOP contest to face her and an independent in the November 3 general election. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the district's history of delivering large margins for the party. Trader consensus on the Democratic outcome incorporates this structural advantage, though improbable late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unexpected national realignment could still alter the race dynamics before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$36,788End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore's strong position in Wisconsin's 4th congressional district reflects the area's entrenched Democratic leanings, centered on Milwaukee County, where she secured 74.8% in the prior cycle. Moore advanced comfortably through the August 2026 Democratic primary against a challenger, while Republican Tim Rogers emerged from a low-turnout GOP contest to face her and an independent in the November 3 general election. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the district's history of delivering large margins for the party. Trader consensus on the Democratic outcome incorporates this structural advantage, though improbable late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unexpected national realignment could still alter the race dynamics before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$36,788End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gwen Moore's strong position in Wisconsin's 4th congressional district reflects the area's entrenched Democratic leanings, centered on Milwaukee County, where she secured 74.8% in the prior cycle. Moore advanced comfortably through the August 2026 Democratic primary against a challenger, while Republican Tim Rogers emerged from a low-turnout GOP contest to face her and an independent in the November 3 general election. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the district's history of delivering large margins for the party. Trader consensus on the Democratic outcome incorporates this structural advantage, though improbable late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unexpected national realignment could still alter the race dynamics before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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