Incumbent Republican Scott Fitzgerald seeks a fourth term in Wisconsin’s 5th congressional district, a longtime Republican stronghold covering northern and western Milwaukee suburbs plus Washington, Jefferson, and most of Waukesha counties. Fitzgerald won reelection in 2024 with 64.4 percent and benefits from the district’s partisan lean, where Donald Trump carried the seat by 14.5 points that year. Both parties completed low-drama primaries in August 2026, with Fitzgerald and Democrat Andrew Beck advancing unopposed in substance. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent voting patterns, limited Democratic infrastructure, and absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. Trader consensus at roughly 95 percent Republican reflects these structural advantages, though late-cycle national swings, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-05 House Election Winner
WI-05 House Election Winner
$59,133 Vol.
$59,133 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
4%
$59,133 Vol.
$59,133 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$32,519 Vol.
95%
Democratic Party
$26,614 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Scott Fitzgerald seeks a fourth term in Wisconsin’s 5th congressional district, a longtime Republican stronghold covering northern and western Milwaukee suburbs plus Washington, Jefferson, and most of Waukesha counties. Fitzgerald won reelection in 2024 with 64.4 percent and benefits from the district’s partisan lean, where Donald Trump carried the seat by 14.5 points that year. Both parties completed low-drama primaries in August 2026, with Fitzgerald and Democrat Andrew Beck advancing unopposed in substance. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent voting patterns, limited Democratic infrastructure, and absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. Trader consensus at roughly 95 percent Republican reflects these structural advantages, though late-cycle national swings, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$59,133End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Scott Fitzgerald seeks a fourth term in Wisconsin’s 5th congressional district, a longtime Republican stronghold covering northern and western Milwaukee suburbs plus Washington, Jefferson, and most of Waukesha counties. Fitzgerald won reelection in 2024 with 64.4 percent and benefits from the district’s partisan lean, where Donald Trump carried the seat by 14.5 points that year. Both parties completed low-drama primaries in August 2026, with Fitzgerald and Democrat Andrew Beck advancing unopposed in substance. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent voting patterns, limited Democratic infrastructure, and absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. Trader consensus at roughly 95 percent Republican reflects these structural advantages, though late-cycle national swings, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$59,133End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Scott Fitzgerald seeks a fourth term in Wisconsin’s 5th congressional district, a longtime Republican stronghold covering northern and western Milwaukee suburbs plus Washington, Jefferson, and most of Waukesha counties. Fitzgerald won reelection in 2024 with 64.4 percent and benefits from the district’s partisan lean, where Donald Trump carried the seat by 14.5 points that year. Both parties completed low-drama primaries in August 2026, with Fitzgerald and Democrat Andrew Beck advancing unopposed in substance. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting the district’s consistent voting patterns, limited Democratic infrastructure, and absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments. Trader consensus at roughly 95 percent Republican reflects these structural advantages, though late-cycle national swings, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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