Persistent low water levels on the Danube, driven by a prolonged Central European drought and below-average precipitation over the past several months, continue to hold Budapest gauge readings well below the 93 cm Low Water Level threshold as of early September 2026. Seasonal patterns typically sustain reduced flows through late summer and early autumn, with limited near-term rainfall forecasts reinforcing trader expectations of delayed recovery. The close split between September 15–30 and October probabilities reflects uncertainty over the timing and volume of autumn precipitation needed to restore normal navigation depths, while the lower shares for earlier or post-November outcomes align with historical recovery variability under similar dry conditions. Any sustained basin-wide rainfall or sharp temperature drop could accelerate rebound and widen the leading intervals, whereas continued aridity would favor later resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhen will the Danube River return to normal levels?
When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
September 15 - 30, 2026 32%
October 1 - 31, 2026 30%
September 1 - 14, 2026 17.8%
Does not return by November 1, 2026 17.8%
$20,704 Vol.
$20,704 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 1 - 14, 2026
18%
September 15 - 30, 2026
32%
October 1 - 31, 2026
30%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
18%
September 15 - 30, 2026 32%
October 1 - 31, 2026 30%
September 1 - 14, 2026 17.8%
Does not return by November 1, 2026 17.8%
$20,704 Vol.
$20,704 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 1 - 14, 2026
$6,179 Vol.
18%
September 15 - 30, 2026
$3,503 Vol.
32%
October 1 - 31, 2026
$4,419 Vol.
30%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
$5,188 Vol.
18%
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent low water levels on the Danube, driven by a prolonged Central European drought and below-average precipitation over the past several months, continue to hold Budapest gauge readings well below the 93 cm Low Water Level threshold as of early September 2026. Seasonal patterns typically sustain reduced flows through late summer and early autumn, with limited near-term rainfall forecasts reinforcing trader expectations of delayed recovery. The close split between September 15–30 and October probabilities reflects uncertainty over the timing and volume of autumn precipitation needed to restore normal navigation depths, while the lower shares for earlier or post-November outcomes align with historical recovery variability under similar dry conditions. Any sustained basin-wide rainfall or sharp temperature drop could accelerate rebound and widen the leading intervals, whereas continued aridity would favor later resolution.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ET
Volume
$20,704End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDROResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent low water levels on the Danube, driven by a prolonged Central European drought and below-average precipitation over the past several months, continue to hold Budapest gauge readings well below the 93 cm Low Water Level threshold as of early September 2026. Seasonal patterns typically sustain reduced flows through late summer and early autumn, with limited near-term rainfall forecasts reinforcing trader expectations of delayed recovery. The close split between September 15–30 and October probabilities reflects uncertainty over the timing and volume of autumn precipitation needed to restore normal navigation depths, while the lower shares for earlier or post-November outcomes align with historical recovery variability under similar dry conditions. Any sustained basin-wide rainfall or sharp temperature drop could accelerate rebound and widen the leading intervals, whereas continued aridity would favor later resolution.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$20,704End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDROResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent low water levels on the Danube, driven by a prolonged Central European drought and below-average precipitation over the past several months, continue to hold Budapest gauge readings well below the 93 cm Low Water Level threshold as of early September 2026. Seasonal patterns typically sustain reduced flows through late summer and early autumn, with limited near-term rainfall forecasts reinforcing trader expectations of delayed recovery. The close split between September 15–30 and October probabilities reflects uncertainty over the timing and volume of autumn precipitation needed to restore normal navigation depths, while the lower shares for earlier or post-November outcomes align with historical recovery variability under similar dry conditions. Any sustained basin-wide rainfall or sharp temperature drop could accelerate rebound and widen the leading intervals, whereas continued aridity would favor later resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions