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icon for What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Climate & Science·Weather

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

icon for What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Climate & Science·Weather

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

Fay 36%

Gonzalo 21.8%

Other 19.9%

Isaias 16.0%

Polymarket

$23,874 Vol.

Fay 36%

Gonzalo 21.8%

Other 19.9%

Isaias 16.0%

Polymarket

$23,874 Vol.

Cristobal

$2,268 Vol.

<1%

Dolly

$3,622 Vol.

2%

Edouard

$4,324 Vol.

5%

Fay

$2,562 Vol.

36%

Gonzalo

$1,453 Vol.

22%

Hanna

$764 Vol.

16%

Isaias

$1,245 Vol.

25%

Josephine

$770 Vol.

5%

Kyle

$798 Vol.

4%

Leah

$661 Vol.

1%

Marco

$503 Vol.

<1%

Nana

$477 Vol.

<1%

Omar

$540 Vol.

<1%

Paulette

$590 Vol.

<1%

Rene

$489 Vol.

<1%

Sally

$557 Vol.

<1%

Teddy

$489 Vol.

<1%

Vicky

$516 Vol.

<1%

Wilfred

$544 Vol.

<1%

Other

$700 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with five short-lived tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard) forming through early September but none yet reaching the 64-knot (74 mph) threshold for hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale.** This marks the longest wait for the season’s first hurricane in the satellite era, driven by a strong El Niño that has produced elevated vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and a more stable atmosphere across the main development region, suppressing intensification. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows no imminent development threats as of September 5, with only weak tropical waves noted and none expected to organize in the coming week. The name list sequence places Fay next after Edouard, followed by Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, and Josephine. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of how many additional named storms will form before any reaches hurricane intensity, with Fay at 35.5% as the immediate candidate and later names gaining probability if suppression persists. Historical analogs and current model consensus indicate the peak period around mid-September offers the best window for the first hurricane, though continued El Niño effects could extend the delay further. Upcoming NHC updates and any new tropical wave activity will be key near-term catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$23,874
End Date
Dec 2, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with five short-lived tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard) forming through early September but none yet reaching the 64-knot (74 mph) threshold for hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson scale.** This marks the longest wait for the season’s first hurricane in the satellite era, driven by a strong El Niño that has produced elevated vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air, and a more stable atmosphere across the main development region, suppressing intensification. Official National Hurricane Center monitoring shows no imminent development threats as of September 5, with only weak tropical waves noted and none expected to organize in the coming week. The name list sequence places Fay next after Edouard, followed by Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, and Josephine. Market-implied odds reflect trader assessment of how many additional named storms will form before any reaches hurricane intensity, with Fay at 35.5% as the immediate candidate and later names gaining probability if suppression persists. Historical analogs and current model consensus indicate the peak period around mid-September offers the best window for the first hurricane, though continued El Niño effects could extend the delay further. Upcoming NHC updates and any new tropical wave activity will be key near-term catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$23,874
End Date
Dec 2, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Fay" at 36%, followed by "Isaias" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" has generated $23.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" is "Fay" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Isaias" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.