Strengthening El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific represent the dominant factor moderating trader expectations for September 2026 U.S. tornado totals, with NOAA models assigning high confidence to a very strong event by fall. This phase typically increases wind shear and alters jet stream positioning in ways that suppress organized severe convection compared to neutral or La Niña years, consistent with historical patterns showing reduced activity during El Niño autumns. Early-month observations, including an EF2 tornado in Detroit on September 4 amid Southeast-focused severe risk, align with typical post-peak seasonal decline, where monthly averages hover near 50–70 events. Market-implied odds clustering around 50–74 versus 25–49 reflect uncertainty in whether residual instability or emerging suppression will dominate the remainder of the period, with upcoming SPC outlooks and model runs likely to refine the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS Tornadoes in September 2026
US Tornadoes in September 2026
50 - 74 48%
25 - 49 46%
75 - 124 44%
125 or more 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
15%
25 - 49
46%
50 - 74
48%
75 - 124
44%
125 or more
16%
50 - 74 48%
25 - 49 46%
75 - 124 44%
125 or more 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
$0 Vol.
15%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
46%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
48%
75 - 124
$0 Vol.
44%
125 or more
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strengthening El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific represent the dominant factor moderating trader expectations for September 2026 U.S. tornado totals, with NOAA models assigning high confidence to a very strong event by fall. This phase typically increases wind shear and alters jet stream positioning in ways that suppress organized severe convection compared to neutral or La Niña years, consistent with historical patterns showing reduced activity during El Niño autumns. Early-month observations, including an EF2 tornado in Detroit on September 4 amid Southeast-focused severe risk, align with typical post-peak seasonal decline, where monthly averages hover near 50–70 events. Market-implied odds clustering around 50–74 versus 25–49 reflect uncertainty in whether residual instability or emerging suppression will dominate the remainder of the period, with upcoming SPC outlooks and model runs likely to refine the balance.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strengthening El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific represent the dominant factor moderating trader expectations for September 2026 U.S. tornado totals, with NOAA models assigning high confidence to a very strong event by fall. This phase typically increases wind shear and alters jet stream positioning in ways that suppress organized severe convection compared to neutral or La Niña years, consistent with historical patterns showing reduced activity during El Niño autumns. Early-month observations, including an EF2 tornado in Detroit on September 4 amid Southeast-focused severe risk, align with typical post-peak seasonal decline, where monthly averages hover near 50–70 events. Market-implied odds clustering around 50–74 versus 25–49 reflect uncertainty in whether residual instability or emerging suppression will dominate the remainder of the period, with upcoming SPC outlooks and model runs likely to refine the balance.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strengthening El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific represent the dominant factor moderating trader expectations for September 2026 U.S. tornado totals, with NOAA models assigning high confidence to a very strong event by fall. This phase typically increases wind shear and alters jet stream positioning in ways that suppress organized severe convection compared to neutral or La Niña years, consistent with historical patterns showing reduced activity during El Niño autumns. Early-month observations, including an EF2 tornado in Detroit on September 4 amid Southeast-focused severe risk, align with typical post-peak seasonal decline, where monthly averages hover near 50–70 events. Market-implied odds clustering around 50–74 versus 25–49 reflect uncertainty in whether residual instability or emerging suppression will dominate the remainder of the period, with upcoming SPC outlooks and model runs likely to refine the balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions