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icon for US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
Tech·Nuke

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

icon for US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
Tech·Nuke

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

11% chance
Polymarket

$26,595 Vol.

11% chance
Polymarket

$26,595 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Trader consensus heavily favors no new US nuclear reactor license grant in 2026, with the 89% implied probability reflecting the extended timelines even under accelerated NRC processes.** Recent executive orders and the finalized Part 53 risk-informed framework have shortened target reviews to around 18 months and enabled the first commercial non-light-water construction permit for TerraPower’s Natrium in March 2026, alongside multiple advanced reactor applications now under review. However, most submissions arrived in 2025 or early 2026, safety and environmental evaluations remain ongoing, and full combined or operating licenses typically require additional steps such as hearings and ITAAC verification that push decisions into 2027 or later. Momentum centers on test reactors, restarts like Palisades, and supply-chain financing rather than completed commercial licensing this year. Key near-term catalysts include scheduled safety evaluation milestones through year-end and any expedited Part 53 pathways that could compress schedules.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$26,595
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Trader consensus heavily favors no new US nuclear reactor license grant in 2026, with the 89% implied probability reflecting the extended timelines even under accelerated NRC processes.** Recent executive orders and the finalized Part 53 risk-informed framework have shortened target reviews to around 18 months and enabled the first commercial non-light-water construction permit for TerraPower’s Natrium in March 2026, alongside multiple advanced reactor applications now under review. However, most submissions arrived in 2025 or early 2026, safety and environmental evaluations remain ongoing, and full combined or operating licenses typically require additional steps such as hearings and ITAAC verification that push decisions into 2027 or later. Momentum centers on test reactors, restarts like Palisades, and supply-chain financing rather than completed commercial licensing this year. Key near-term catalysts include scheduled safety evaluation milestones through year-end and any expedited Part 53 pathways that could compress schedules.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$26,595
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 11% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 11¢, the market collectively assigns a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?" has generated $26.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?" is 11% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.