Traders assign a 98.2% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 due to repeated congressional action on the statutory debt limit, most recently a $5 trillion increase in July 2025 that set the ceiling at $41.1 trillion. The Treasury can deploy extraordinary measures once that limit is reached, projected by the Bipartisan Policy Center for late winter to mid-summer 2027, providing a six-to-nine-month buffer before any X-date. The dollar’s reserve-currency status, broad tax base, and institutional track record of avoiding outright default further support market confidence. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unusually prolonged 2027 impasse without compromise, a severe fiscal shock that exhausts cash reserves faster than expected, or unprecedented political gridlock that delays legislation beyond extraordinary measures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
2% chance
$17,090 Vol.
$17,090 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
2% chance
$17,090 Vol.
$17,090 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 98.2% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 due to repeated congressional action on the statutory debt limit, most recently a $5 trillion increase in July 2025 that set the ceiling at $41.1 trillion. The Treasury can deploy extraordinary measures once that limit is reached, projected by the Bipartisan Policy Center for late winter to mid-summer 2027, providing a six-to-nine-month buffer before any X-date. The dollar’s reserve-currency status, broad tax base, and institutional track record of avoiding outright default further support market confidence. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unusually prolonged 2027 impasse without compromise, a severe fiscal shock that exhausts cash reserves faster than expected, or unprecedented political gridlock that delays legislation beyond extraordinary measures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$17,090End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 98.2% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 due to repeated congressional action on the statutory debt limit, most recently a $5 trillion increase in July 2025 that set the ceiling at $41.1 trillion. The Treasury can deploy extraordinary measures once that limit is reached, projected by the Bipartisan Policy Center for late winter to mid-summer 2027, providing a six-to-nine-month buffer before any X-date. The dollar’s reserve-currency status, broad tax base, and institutional track record of avoiding outright default further support market confidence. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unusually prolonged 2027 impasse without compromise, a severe fiscal shock that exhausts cash reserves faster than expected, or unprecedented political gridlock that delays legislation beyond extraordinary measures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$17,090End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.2% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 due to repeated congressional action on the statutory debt limit, most recently a $5 trillion increase in July 2025 that set the ceiling at $41.1 trillion. The Treasury can deploy extraordinary measures once that limit is reached, projected by the Bipartisan Policy Center for late winter to mid-summer 2027, providing a six-to-nine-month buffer before any X-date. The dollar’s reserve-currency status, broad tax base, and institutional track record of avoiding outright default further support market confidence. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unusually prolonged 2027 impasse without compromise, a severe fiscal shock that exhausts cash reserves faster than expected, or unprecedented political gridlock that delays legislation beyond extraordinary measures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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