**House passage in July 2026 of a limited measure restricting new stock purchases by members and families, while allowing existing holdings with advance-sale notice, has not translated into broader Senate momentum.** Stronger divestment-focused bills advanced only to committee in both chambers earlier in the 119th Congress but stalled amid partisan disagreements and procedural hurdles, including filibuster requirements. The House bill's attachment of unrelated voting provisions further reduced cross-aisle support, leaving Senate leadership without a clear path to floor consideration before the end of 2026. Traders' 92.5% probability on "No" aligns with this legislative gridlock and the short remaining timeline for enactment of any comprehensive ban.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8% chance
$19,816 Vol.
$19,816 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
8% chance
$19,816 Vol.
$19,816 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
**House passage in July 2026 of a limited measure restricting new stock purchases by members and families, while allowing existing holdings with advance-sale notice, has not translated into broader Senate momentum.** Stronger divestment-focused bills advanced only to committee in both chambers earlier in the 119th Congress but stalled amid partisan disagreements and procedural hurdles, including filibuster requirements. The House bill's attachment of unrelated voting provisions further reduced cross-aisle support, leaving Senate leadership without a clear path to floor consideration before the end of 2026. Traders' 92.5% probability on "No" aligns with this legislative gridlock and the short remaining timeline for enactment of any comprehensive ban.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:50 PM ET
Volume
$19,816End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
**House passage in July 2026 of a limited measure restricting new stock purchases by members and families, while allowing existing holdings with advance-sale notice, has not translated into broader Senate momentum.** Stronger divestment-focused bills advanced only to committee in both chambers earlier in the 119th Congress but stalled amid partisan disagreements and procedural hurdles, including filibuster requirements. The House bill's attachment of unrelated voting provisions further reduced cross-aisle support, leaving Senate leadership without a clear path to floor consideration before the end of 2026. Traders' 92.5% probability on "No" aligns with this legislative gridlock and the short remaining timeline for enactment of any comprehensive ban.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,816End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**House passage in July 2026 of a limited measure restricting new stock purchases by members and families, while allowing existing holdings with advance-sale notice, has not translated into broader Senate momentum.** Stronger divestment-focused bills advanced only to committee in both chambers earlier in the 119th Congress but stalled amid partisan disagreements and procedural hurdles, including filibuster requirements. The House bill's attachment of unrelated voting provisions further reduced cross-aisle support, leaving Senate leadership without a clear path to floor consideration before the end of 2026. Traders' 92.5% probability on "No" aligns with this legislative gridlock and the short remaining timeline for enactment of any comprehensive ban.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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