Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 323 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote threshold required to trigger a constitutional referendum. Recent parliamentary passage of PKK-related legislation has expanded potential cross-party support, yet senior figures including presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum have stated that a full new constitution is unlikely before the next legislative term. Preparatory commissions continue internal drafting, and opposition parties remain opposed to changes that could extend presidential term limits. These structural and political constraints explain why traders assign only a 26.5% probability to an official referendum announcement occurring by December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated17% chance
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Dec 31, 2026
17% chance
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Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 323 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote threshold required to trigger a constitutional referendum. Recent parliamentary passage of PKK-related legislation has expanded potential cross-party support, yet senior figures including presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum have stated that a full new constitution is unlikely before the next legislative term. Preparatory commissions continue internal drafting, and opposition parties remain opposed to changes that could extend presidential term limits. These structural and political constraints explain why traders assign only a 26.5% probability to an official referendum announcement occurring by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$6,796End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 323 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote threshold required to trigger a constitutional referendum. Recent parliamentary passage of PKK-related legislation has expanded potential cross-party support, yet senior figures including presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum have stated that a full new constitution is unlikely before the next legislative term. Preparatory commissions continue internal drafting, and opposition parties remain opposed to changes that could extend presidential term limits. These structural and political constraints explain why traders assign only a 26.5% probability to an official referendum announcement occurring by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,796End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 323 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly, short of the 360-vote threshold required to trigger a constitutional referendum. Recent parliamentary passage of PKK-related legislation has expanded potential cross-party support, yet senior figures including presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum have stated that a full new constitution is unlikely before the next legislative term. Preparatory commissions continue internal drafting, and opposition parties remain opposed to changes that could extend presidential term limits. These structural and political constraints explain why traders assign only a 26.5% probability to an official referendum announcement occurring by December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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