**President Donald Trump’s continued service through at least the end of 2026 aligns with the steep constitutional and political barriers to early removal.** Invocation of the 25th Amendment would require Vice President JD Vance and a Cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by two-thirds votes in both chambers of Congress—thresholds unmet amid sustained Republican alignment. Impeachment faces similar partisan realities in a GOP-controlled Congress, where a recent Democratic resolution introduced in August 2026 was referred to committee without further action. No primary-source reporting indicates active resignation signals, sustained Cabinet dissent, or procedural momentum from midterm positioning. While isolated health observations and foreign-policy debates have surfaced, they have produced no institutional follow-through capable of altering the timeline before January 2027. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 94.5 percent, reflecting the narrow set of confirmed pathways that could trigger resolution in the remaining months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
$11,410,662 Vol.
$11,410,662 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
$11,410,662 Vol.
$11,410,662 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**President Donald Trump’s continued service through at least the end of 2026 aligns with the steep constitutional and political barriers to early removal.** Invocation of the 25th Amendment would require Vice President JD Vance and a Cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by two-thirds votes in both chambers of Congress—thresholds unmet amid sustained Republican alignment. Impeachment faces similar partisan realities in a GOP-controlled Congress, where a recent Democratic resolution introduced in August 2026 was referred to committee without further action.
No primary-source reporting indicates active resignation signals, sustained Cabinet dissent, or procedural momentum from midterm positioning. While isolated health observations and foreign-policy debates have surfaced, they have produced no institutional follow-through capable of altering the timeline before January 2027. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 94.5 percent, reflecting the narrow set of confirmed pathways that could trigger resolution in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$11,410,662End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**President Donald Trump’s continued service through at least the end of 2026 aligns with the steep constitutional and political barriers to early removal.** Invocation of the 25th Amendment would require Vice President JD Vance and a Cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by two-thirds votes in both chambers of Congress—thresholds unmet amid sustained Republican alignment. Impeachment faces similar partisan realities in a GOP-controlled Congress, where a recent Democratic resolution introduced in August 2026 was referred to committee without further action.
No primary-source reporting indicates active resignation signals, sustained Cabinet dissent, or procedural momentum from midterm positioning. While isolated health observations and foreign-policy debates have surfaced, they have produced no institutional follow-through capable of altering the timeline before January 2027. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 94.5 percent, reflecting the narrow set of confirmed pathways that could trigger resolution in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,410,662End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**President Donald Trump’s continued service through at least the end of 2026 aligns with the steep constitutional and political barriers to early removal.** Invocation of the 25th Amendment would require Vice President JD Vance and a Cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by two-thirds votes in both chambers of Congress—thresholds unmet amid sustained Republican alignment. Impeachment faces similar partisan realities in a GOP-controlled Congress, where a recent Democratic resolution introduced in August 2026 was referred to committee without further action. No primary-source reporting indicates active resignation signals, sustained Cabinet dissent, or procedural momentum from midterm positioning. While isolated health observations and foreign-policy debates have surfaced, they have produced no institutional follow-through capable of altering the timeline before January 2027. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 94.5 percent, reflecting the narrow set of confirmed pathways that could trigger resolution in the remaining months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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