**Recent Swedish polling averages ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election show the Sweden Democrats (SD) consistently ahead of the Moderates (M), with SD at roughly 19–21% and M at 17–18%.** This gap has held across multiple houses including Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion through late August and early September, reflecting SD’s stronger support on immigration, crime, and integration issues within the right-leaning Tidö bloc. M has seen modest declines from its 2022 result while SD has maintained or slightly improved its position relative to the Moderates. The race between the broader blocs has tightened in recent weeks, yet the intra-bloc ordering between SD and M has remained stable. With early voting underway and no major last-minute shifts reported, the current polling trajectory supports the market’s assessment that SD is the more likely of the two to finish with the higher vote share.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?
Sweden Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SD or M?
SD
80% chance
$13,096 Vol.
$13,096 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
SD
80% chance
$13,096 Vol.
$13,096 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish polling averages ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election show the Sweden Democrats (SD) consistently ahead of the Moderates (M), with SD at roughly 19–21% and M at 17–18%.** This gap has held across multiple houses including Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion through late August and early September, reflecting SD’s stronger support on immigration, crime, and integration issues within the right-leaning Tidö bloc. M has seen modest declines from its 2022 result while SD has maintained or slightly improved its position relative to the Moderates. The race between the broader blocs has tightened in recent weeks, yet the intra-bloc ordering between SD and M has remained stable. With early voting underway and no major last-minute shifts reported, the current polling trajectory supports the market’s assessment that SD is the more likely of the two to finish with the higher vote share.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:22 AM ET
Volume
$13,096End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish polling averages ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election show the Sweden Democrats (SD) consistently ahead of the Moderates (M), with SD at roughly 19–21% and M at 17–18%.** This gap has held across multiple houses including Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion through late August and early September, reflecting SD’s stronger support on immigration, crime, and integration issues within the right-leaning Tidö bloc. M has seen modest declines from its 2022 result while SD has maintained or slightly improved its position relative to the Moderates. The race between the broader blocs has tightened in recent weeks, yet the intra-bloc ordering between SD and M has remained stable. With early voting underway and no major last-minute shifts reported, the current polling trajectory supports the market’s assessment that SD is the more likely of the two to finish with the higher vote share.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$13,096End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Swedish polling averages ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election show the Sweden Democrats (SD) consistently ahead of the Moderates (M), with SD at roughly 19–21% and M at 17–18%.** This gap has held across multiple houses including Novus, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion through late August and early September, reflecting SD’s stronger support on immigration, crime, and integration issues within the right-leaning Tidö bloc. M has seen modest declines from its 2022 result while SD has maintained or slightly improved its position relative to the Moderates. The race between the broader blocs has tightened in recent weeks, yet the intra-bloc ordering between SD and M has remained stable. With early voting underway and no major last-minute shifts reported, the current polling trajectory supports the market’s assessment that SD is the more likely of the two to finish with the higher vote share.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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