Flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., driven by persistent above-normal temperatures and precipitation deficits from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and into Mississippi and Tennessee, represents the main catalyst elevating the 59.5% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 on the upcoming U.S. Drought Monitor map. Multiple indicators—soil moisture percentiles, streamflow, and vegetation stress—have prompted rapid one- to two-category degradations in recent weeks, expanding exceptional drought pockets already present in Nebraska, Colorado, and Wyoming. A developing strong El Niño adds longer-term uncertainty for southern precipitation relief but offers little immediate mitigation. With the September 8 week map reflecting conditions near September 1–8 data, traders weigh continued central U.S. drying against potential localized improvements in the northern Plains or West.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 8, 2026?
10 or more states 61%
7-9 states 39%
0 states 38%
1-2 states 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
0 states
38%
1-2 states
38%
3-4 states
37%
5-6 states
38%
7-9 states
39%
10 or more states
61%
10 or more states 61%
7-9 states 39%
0 states 38%
1-2 states 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
0 states
$0 Vol.
38%
1-2 states
$0 Vol.
38%
3-4 states
$0 Vol.
37%
5-6 states
$0 Vol.
38%
7-9 states
$0 Vol.
39%
10 or more states
$0 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., driven by persistent above-normal temperatures and precipitation deficits from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and into Mississippi and Tennessee, represents the main catalyst elevating the 59.5% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 on the upcoming U.S. Drought Monitor map. Multiple indicators—soil moisture percentiles, streamflow, and vegetation stress—have prompted rapid one- to two-category degradations in recent weeks, expanding exceptional drought pockets already present in Nebraska, Colorado, and Wyoming. A developing strong El Niño adds longer-term uncertainty for southern precipitation relief but offers little immediate mitigation. With the September 8 week map reflecting conditions near September 1–8 data, traders weigh continued central U.S. drying against potential localized improvements in the northern Plains or West.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., driven by persistent above-normal temperatures and precipitation deficits from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and into Mississippi and Tennessee, represents the main catalyst elevating the 59.5% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 on the upcoming U.S. Drought Monitor map. Multiple indicators—soil moisture percentiles, streamflow, and vegetation stress—have prompted rapid one- to two-category degradations in recent weeks, expanding exceptional drought pockets already present in Nebraska, Colorado, and Wyoming. A developing strong El Niño adds longer-term uncertainty for southern precipitation relief but offers little immediate mitigation. With the September 8 week map reflecting conditions near September 1–8 data, traders weigh continued central U.S. drying against potential localized improvements in the northern Plains or West.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flash drought intensification across the South-Central U.S., driven by persistent above-normal temperatures and precipitation deficits from Texas through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and into Mississippi and Tennessee, represents the main catalyst elevating the 59.5% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 on the upcoming U.S. Drought Monitor map. Multiple indicators—soil moisture percentiles, streamflow, and vegetation stress—have prompted rapid one- to two-category degradations in recent weeks, expanding exceptional drought pockets already present in Nebraska, Colorado, and Wyoming. A developing strong El Niño adds longer-term uncertainty for southern precipitation relief but offers little immediate mitigation. With the September 8 week map reflecting conditions near September 1–8 data, traders weigh continued central U.S. drying against potential localized improvements in the northern Plains or West.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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