Both leaders have publicly and repeatedly ruled out a renewed joint list for the October 2026 Knesset election. Itamar Ben-Gvir has described any alliance with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism as “final and complete,” citing incompatible voter bases and the need for Otzma Yehudit to maximize seats across broader right-wing constituencies. Smotrich has echoed that stance while finalizing a technical bloc with Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party ahead of the list-submission deadline. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s calls for unity to protect the right-wing bloc have not altered their positions. With Religious Zionism polling near or below the threshold and Otzma Yehudit stronger on its own, traders assign near-certainty to separate runs. A shift would require an unforeseen last-minute deal, such as reserved Likud slots or external pressure strong enough to override the stated refusals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
3% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Both leaders have publicly and repeatedly ruled out a renewed joint list for the October 2026 Knesset election. Itamar Ben-Gvir has described any alliance with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism as “final and complete,” citing incompatible voter bases and the need for Otzma Yehudit to maximize seats across broader right-wing constituencies. Smotrich has echoed that stance while finalizing a technical bloc with Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party ahead of the list-submission deadline. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s calls for unity to protect the right-wing bloc have not altered their positions. With Religious Zionism polling near or below the threshold and Otzma Yehudit stronger on its own, traders assign near-certainty to separate runs. A shift would require an unforeseen last-minute deal, such as reserved Likud slots or external pressure strong enough to override the stated refusals.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ET
Volume
$2,235End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Both leaders have publicly and repeatedly ruled out a renewed joint list for the October 2026 Knesset election. Itamar Ben-Gvir has described any alliance with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism as “final and complete,” citing incompatible voter bases and the need for Otzma Yehudit to maximize seats across broader right-wing constituencies. Smotrich has echoed that stance while finalizing a technical bloc with Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party ahead of the list-submission deadline. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s calls for unity to protect the right-wing bloc have not altered their positions. With Religious Zionism polling near or below the threshold and Otzma Yehudit stronger on its own, traders assign near-certainty to separate runs. A shift would require an unforeseen last-minute deal, such as reserved Likud slots or external pressure strong enough to override the stated refusals.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$2,235End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Both leaders have publicly and repeatedly ruled out a renewed joint list for the October 2026 Knesset election. Itamar Ben-Gvir has described any alliance with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism as “final and complete,” citing incompatible voter bases and the need for Otzma Yehudit to maximize seats across broader right-wing constituencies. Smotrich has echoed that stance while finalizing a technical bloc with Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party ahead of the list-submission deadline. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s calls for unity to protect the right-wing bloc have not altered their positions. With Religious Zionism polling near or below the threshold and Otzma Yehudit stronger on its own, traders assign near-certainty to separate runs. A shift would require an unforeseen last-minute deal, such as reserved Likud slots or external pressure strong enough to override the stated refusals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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