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icon for Saint-François Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
Elections·Canada

Saint-François Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Saint-François Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
Elections·Canada

Saint-François Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Sylvie Tanguay 43%

Geneviève Hébert 34%

Jacqueline Belleau 12%

Mia Fréchette 6%

Polymarket
NEW

Sylvie Tanguay 43%

Geneviève Hébert 34%

Jacqueline Belleau 12%

Mia Fréchette 6%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Sylvie Tanguay

Sylvie Tanguay

$181 Vol.

43%

icon for Geneviève Hébert

Geneviève Hébert

$582 Vol.

34%

icon for Jacqueline Belleau

Jacqueline Belleau

$550 Vol.

12%

icon for Mia Fréchette

Mia Fréchette

$768 Vol.

6%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**In the Saint-François riding for Quebec’s October 5, 2026, National Assembly election, trader odds remain closely balanced among the main contenders because the seat features a fragmented field in a redistributed district where provincial trends and local dynamics overlap.** Incumbent Geneviève Hébert of the Coalition Avenir Québec faces Parti Québécois candidate Sylvie Tanguay, Québec solidaire’s Mia Fréchette, and Liberal Jacqueline Belleau, with projections from sources such as 338Canada showing the PQ ahead on popular vote estimates around 29–37 percent while the CAQ sits near 20–22 percent. The race stays tight due to split opposition votes, CAQ incumbency advantages in a historically competitive Estrie riding, and broader provincial polling volatility on issues including health care access, affordability, and temporary foreign worker policies relevant to the Coaticook area. Upcoming events such as the September 17 nomination deadline, party leader visits, and final-week polling could shift implied probabilities by clarifying turnout patterns or clarifying each party’s local strength.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$2,081
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).**In the Saint-François riding for Quebec’s October 5, 2026, National Assembly election, trader odds remain closely balanced among the main contenders because the seat features a fragmented field in a redistributed district where provincial trends and local dynamics overlap.** Incumbent Geneviève Hébert of the Coalition Avenir Québec faces Parti Québécois candidate Sylvie Tanguay, Québec solidaire’s Mia Fréchette, and Liberal Jacqueline Belleau, with projections from sources such as 338Canada showing the PQ ahead on popular vote estimates around 29–37 percent while the CAQ sits near 20–22 percent. The race stays tight due to split opposition votes, CAQ incumbency advantages in a historically competitive Estrie riding, and broader provincial polling volatility on issues including health care access, affordability, and temporary foreign worker policies relevant to the Coaticook area. Upcoming events such as the September 17 nomination deadline, party leader visits, and final-week polling could shift implied probabilities by clarifying turnout patterns or clarifying each party’s local strength.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$2,081
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Saint-François Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sylvie Tanguay" at 43%, followed by "Geneviève Hébert" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Saint-François Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Saint-François Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Saint-François Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Sylvie Tanguay" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Geneviève Hébert" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Saint-François Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.