Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 82.5% implied probability as the frontrunner in the October 4, 2026, first-round vote for Paraná governor, reflecting consistent polling leads of 37-45% across recent surveys from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and others. His position stems from strong name recognition tied to his Lava Jato role and Senate tenure, bolstered by the PL convention launch in early August and alliances with parties including Podemos and Novo. Sandro Alex (PSD), backed by term-limited incumbent Ratinho Junior and a broad coalition, trails at 17.5% amid polls showing him at 15-17.5%, with challenges transferring the governor's high approval ratings. Lower-polling candidates such as Requião Filho (PDT) remain distant, as voter preferences have shown limited movement in the final weeks before the first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedParaná Governor Election Winner
Paraná Governor Election Winner
Sergio Moro 83%
Sandro Alex 18%
Requião Filho <1%
Alexandre Curi <1%
$108,941 Vol.
$108,941 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Moro
83%
Sandro Alex
18%
Requião Filho
<1%
Alexandre Curi
<1%
Enio Verri
<1%
Luiz França
<1%
Rafael Greca
<1%
Guto Silva
<1%
Beto Richa
<1%
Sergio Moro 83%
Sandro Alex 18%
Requião Filho <1%
Alexandre Curi <1%
$108,941 Vol.
$108,941 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sergio Moro
$71,243 Vol.
83%
Sandro Alex
$6,503 Vol.
18%
Requião Filho
$11,633 Vol.
<1%
Alexandre Curi
$4,246 Vol.
<1%
Enio Verri
$3,396 Vol.
<1%
Luiz França
$2,900 Vol.
<1%
Rafael Greca
$3,373 Vol.
<1%
Guto Silva
$3,022 Vol.
<1%
Beto Richa
$2,625 Vol.
<1%
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 82.5% implied probability as the frontrunner in the October 4, 2026, first-round vote for Paraná governor, reflecting consistent polling leads of 37-45% across recent surveys from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and others. His position stems from strong name recognition tied to his Lava Jato role and Senate tenure, bolstered by the PL convention launch in early August and alliances with parties including Podemos and Novo. Sandro Alex (PSD), backed by term-limited incumbent Ratinho Junior and a broad coalition, trails at 17.5% amid polls showing him at 15-17.5%, with challenges transferring the governor's high approval ratings. Lower-polling candidates such as Requião Filho (PDT) remain distant, as voter preferences have shown limited movement in the final weeks before the first round.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$108,941End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 82.5% implied probability as the frontrunner in the October 4, 2026, first-round vote for Paraná governor, reflecting consistent polling leads of 37-45% across recent surveys from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and others. His position stems from strong name recognition tied to his Lava Jato role and Senate tenure, bolstered by the PL convention launch in early August and alliances with parties including Podemos and Novo. Sandro Alex (PSD), backed by term-limited incumbent Ratinho Junior and a broad coalition, trails at 17.5% amid polls showing him at 15-17.5%, with challenges transferring the governor's high approval ratings. Lower-polling candidates such as Requião Filho (PDT) remain distant, as voter preferences have shown limited movement in the final weeks before the first round.
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$108,941End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 82.5% implied probability as the frontrunner in the October 4, 2026, first-round vote for Paraná governor, reflecting consistent polling leads of 37-45% across recent surveys from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and others. His position stems from strong name recognition tied to his Lava Jato role and Senate tenure, bolstered by the PL convention launch in early August and alliances with parties including Podemos and Novo. Sandro Alex (PSD), backed by term-limited incumbent Ratinho Junior and a broad coalition, trails at 17.5% amid polls showing him at 15-17.5%, with challenges transferring the governor's high approval ratings. Lower-polling candidates such as Requião Filho (PDT) remain distant, as voter preferences have shown limited movement in the final weeks before the first round.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions