Hana Ghassan, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office after Helder Barbalho's resignation, leads trader pricing at 55.5% amid a tight race with Dr. Daniel Santos of Podemos, who polls near or slightly ahead in recent surveys. Late August and early September polling from Indexa and Quaest shows the pair in technical ties or narrow margins in the first round, with high shares of undecided and blank/null voters keeping outcomes fluid ahead of the October 4 vote and possible October 25 runoff. Minor candidates register low single digits or less, limiting vote fragmentation effects. Traders appear to price Hana's incumbency and party infrastructure against Daniel's municipal executive record, with separation likely hinging on final debate performances, turnout patterns in key regions, and any late shifts in undecided blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPará Governor Election Winner
Pará Governor Election Winner
Hana Ghassan 55%
Dr. Daniel Santos 44%
Éder Mauro 1.9%
Zequinha Marinho 1.4%
$34,903 Vol.
$34,903 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Hana Ghassan
55%
Dr. Daniel Santos
44%
Éder Mauro
2%
Zequinha Marinho
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
1%
Paulo Rocha
<1%
Rogério Barra
<1%
Hana Ghassan 55%
Dr. Daniel Santos 44%
Éder Mauro 1.9%
Zequinha Marinho 1.4%
$34,903 Vol.
$34,903 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Hana Ghassan
$14,953 Vol.
55%
Dr. Daniel Santos
$9,902 Vol.
44%
Éder Mauro
$3,977 Vol.
2%
Zequinha Marinho
$1,464 Vol.
1%
Dirceu Ten Caten
$1,504 Vol.
1%
Paulo Rocha
$1,543 Vol.
<1%
Rogério Barra
$1,561 Vol.
<1%
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office after Helder Barbalho's resignation, leads trader pricing at 55.5% amid a tight race with Dr. Daniel Santos of Podemos, who polls near or slightly ahead in recent surveys. Late August and early September polling from Indexa and Quaest shows the pair in technical ties or narrow margins in the first round, with high shares of undecided and blank/null voters keeping outcomes fluid ahead of the October 4 vote and possible October 25 runoff. Minor candidates register low single digits or less, limiting vote fragmentation effects. Traders appear to price Hana's incumbency and party infrastructure against Daniel's municipal executive record, with separation likely hinging on final debate performances, turnout patterns in key regions, and any late shifts in undecided blocs.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
Volume
$34,903End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Hana Ghassan, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office after Helder Barbalho's resignation, leads trader pricing at 55.5% amid a tight race with Dr. Daniel Santos of Podemos, who polls near or slightly ahead in recent surveys. Late August and early September polling from Indexa and Quaest shows the pair in technical ties or narrow margins in the first round, with high shares of undecided and blank/null voters keeping outcomes fluid ahead of the October 4 vote and possible October 25 runoff. Minor candidates register low single digits or less, limiting vote fragmentation effects. Traders appear to price Hana's incumbency and party infrastructure against Daniel's municipal executive record, with separation likely hinging on final debate performances, turnout patterns in key regions, and any late shifts in undecided blocs.
The Pará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$34,903End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hana Ghassan, the incumbent MDB governor who assumed office after Helder Barbalho's resignation, leads trader pricing at 55.5% amid a tight race with Dr. Daniel Santos of Podemos, who polls near or slightly ahead in recent surveys. Late August and early September polling from Indexa and Quaest shows the pair in technical ties or narrow margins in the first round, with high shares of undecided and blank/null voters keeping outcomes fluid ahead of the October 4 vote and possible October 25 runoff. Minor candidates register low single digits or less, limiting vote fragmentation effects. Traders appear to price Hana's incumbency and party infrastructure against Daniel's municipal executive record, with separation likely hinging on final debate performances, turnout patterns in key regions, and any late shifts in undecided blocs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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