Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5 general election shows the Parti Conservateur du Québec holding steady support near 13-16 percent provincially, with particular strength in the Quebec City region where it often competes directly with the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. This regional concentration, combined with the province’s first-past-the-post system and a new 127-seat map, produces seat projections clustered around 8-13 for the PCQ under Éric Duhaime. Trader consensus reflects this narrow band because vote fragmentation among the five main parties and local riding dynamics could easily shift the final tally by several seats either way, while broader campaign trends have yet to produce decisive movement for or against the Conservatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8-10 26%
11-13 25%
5-7 15%
17+ 10.3%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
9%
5-7
15%
8-10
26%
11-13
25%
14-16
7%
17+
13%
8-10 26%
11-13 25%
5-7 15%
17+ 10.3%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$1,884 Vol.
9%
5-7
$584 Vol.
15%
8-10
$1,049 Vol.
26%
11-13
$1,132 Vol.
25%
14-16
$909 Vol.
7%
17+
$901 Vol.
13%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5 general election shows the Parti Conservateur du Québec holding steady support near 13-16 percent provincially, with particular strength in the Quebec City region where it often competes directly with the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. This regional concentration, combined with the province’s first-past-the-post system and a new 127-seat map, produces seat projections clustered around 8-13 for the PCQ under Éric Duhaime. Trader consensus reflects this narrow band because vote fragmentation among the five main parties and local riding dynamics could easily shift the final tally by several seats either way, while broader campaign trends have yet to produce decisive movement for or against the Conservatives.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$6,458End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5 general election shows the Parti Conservateur du Québec holding steady support near 13-16 percent provincially, with particular strength in the Quebec City region where it often competes directly with the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. This regional concentration, combined with the province’s first-past-the-post system and a new 127-seat map, produces seat projections clustered around 8-13 for the PCQ under Éric Duhaime. Trader consensus reflects this narrow band because vote fragmentation among the five main parties and local riding dynamics could easily shift the final tally by several seats either way, while broader campaign trends have yet to produce decisive movement for or against the Conservatives.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti conservateur du Québec (PCQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$6,458End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling ahead of Quebec’s October 5 general election shows the Parti Conservateur du Québec holding steady support near 13-16 percent provincially, with particular strength in the Quebec City region where it often competes directly with the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec. This regional concentration, combined with the province’s first-past-the-post system and a new 127-seat map, produces seat projections clustered around 8-13 for the PCQ under Éric Duhaime. Trader consensus reflects this narrow band because vote fragmentation among the five main parties and local riding dynamics could easily shift the final tally by several seats either way, while broader campaign trends have yet to produce decisive movement for or against the Conservatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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