Incumbent Democrat Ritchie Torres secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 15th congressional district with roughly 72 percent of the primary vote in June 2026, defeating challengers Michael Blake and Jose Vega. The Bronx-based district has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, reflected in nonpartisan ratings of Solid Democratic. Republican nominee Stylo Sapaskis advanced unopposed in the GOP primary but faces limited organizational resources and historical underperformance in the area. Forecasters project a substantial Democratic advantage heading into the November 3 general election, consistent with the district’s partisan voting index and voter registration patterns. Trader consensus at 99 percent Democratic probability aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually suppressed turnout could theoretically alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-15 House Election Winner
NY-15 House Election Winner
$46,403 Vol.
$46,403 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
99%
Republican Party
<1%
$46,403 Vol.
$46,403 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$27,077 Vol.
99%
Republican Party
$19,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ritchie Torres secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 15th congressional district with roughly 72 percent of the primary vote in June 2026, defeating challengers Michael Blake and Jose Vega. The Bronx-based district has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, reflected in nonpartisan ratings of Solid Democratic. Republican nominee Stylo Sapaskis advanced unopposed in the GOP primary but faces limited organizational resources and historical underperformance in the area. Forecasters project a substantial Democratic advantage heading into the November 3 general election, consistent with the district’s partisan voting index and voter registration patterns. Trader consensus at 99 percent Democratic probability aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually suppressed turnout could theoretically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$46,403End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ritchie Torres secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 15th congressional district with roughly 72 percent of the primary vote in June 2026, defeating challengers Michael Blake and Jose Vega. The Bronx-based district has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, reflected in nonpartisan ratings of Solid Democratic. Republican nominee Stylo Sapaskis advanced unopposed in the GOP primary but faces limited organizational resources and historical underperformance in the area. Forecasters project a substantial Democratic advantage heading into the November 3 general election, consistent with the district’s partisan voting index and voter registration patterns. Trader consensus at 99 percent Democratic probability aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually suppressed turnout could theoretically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$46,403End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ritchie Torres secured the Democratic nomination for New York’s 15th congressional district with roughly 72 percent of the primary vote in June 2026, defeating challengers Michael Blake and Jose Vega. The Bronx-based district has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, reflected in nonpartisan ratings of Solid Democratic. Republican nominee Stylo Sapaskis advanced unopposed in the GOP primary but faces limited organizational resources and historical underperformance in the area. Forecasters project a substantial Democratic advantage heading into the November 3 general election, consistent with the district’s partisan voting index and voter registration patterns. Trader consensus at 99 percent Democratic probability aligns with these structural factors, though an unforeseen scandal, health event, or unusually suppressed turnout could theoretically alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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