**Forecast models from sources like the Wuhan Meteorological Observatory and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature of 21–23°C for September 6 under clear to mostly clear skies, light northeast winds, and moderate humidity around 50–65%.** This positions the overnight low near or slightly above the 20°C threshold, where trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly (20°C at 35.0%, 19°C at 33.5%, 18°C at 32.0%). The close spread across 16–20°C outcomes reflects residual model uncertainty in radiative cooling rates during the early morning hours, when temperatures typically bottom out around 05:00–06:00 local time. Key differentiators include dew-point depression, wind speed (lighter flows allow greater surface cooling), and the absence of cloud cover or frontal passages that could moderate the drop. With high pressure dominating and no significant weather systems approaching, the primary near-term catalyst remains the final overnight model updates from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wuhan on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Wuhan on September 6?
16°C or below 69%
18°C 68%
17°C 67%
20°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
16°C or below
69%
17°C
67%
18°C
68%
19°C
36%
20°C
37%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
16°C or below 69%
18°C 68%
17°C 67%
20°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
17°C
$0 Vol.
67%
18°C
$0 Vol.
68%
19°C
$0 Vol.
36%
20°C
$0 Vol.
37%
21°C
$74 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$189 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$60 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$45 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like the Wuhan Meteorological Observatory and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature of 21–23°C for September 6 under clear to mostly clear skies, light northeast winds, and moderate humidity around 50–65%.** This positions the overnight low near or slightly above the 20°C threshold, where trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly (20°C at 35.0%, 19°C at 33.5%, 18°C at 32.0%). The close spread across 16–20°C outcomes reflects residual model uncertainty in radiative cooling rates during the early morning hours, when temperatures typically bottom out around 05:00–06:00 local time. Key differentiators include dew-point depression, wind speed (lighter flows allow greater surface cooling), and the absence of cloud cover or frontal passages that could moderate the drop. With high pressure dominating and no significant weather systems approaching, the primary near-term catalyst remains the final overnight model updates from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$448End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from sources like the Wuhan Meteorological Observatory and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature of 21–23°C for September 6 under clear to mostly clear skies, light northeast winds, and moderate humidity around 50–65%.** This positions the overnight low near or slightly above the 20°C threshold, where trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly (20°C at 35.0%, 19°C at 33.5%, 18°C at 32.0%). The close spread across 16–20°C outcomes reflects residual model uncertainty in radiative cooling rates during the early morning hours, when temperatures typically bottom out around 05:00–06:00 local time. Key differentiators include dew-point depression, wind speed (lighter flows allow greater surface cooling), and the absence of cloud cover or frontal passages that could moderate the drop. With high pressure dominating and no significant weather systems approaching, the primary near-term catalyst remains the final overnight model updates from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$448End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhhResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from sources like the Wuhan Meteorological Observatory and international ensembles indicate a minimum temperature of 21–23°C for September 6 under clear to mostly clear skies, light northeast winds, and moderate humidity around 50–65%.** This positions the overnight low near or slightly above the 20°C threshold, where trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly (20°C at 35.0%, 19°C at 33.5%, 18°C at 32.0%). The close spread across 16–20°C outcomes reflects residual model uncertainty in radiative cooling rates during the early morning hours, when temperatures typically bottom out around 05:00–06:00 local time. Key differentiators include dew-point depression, wind speed (lighter flows allow greater surface cooling), and the absence of cloud cover or frontal passages that could moderate the drop. With high pressure dominating and no significant weather systems approaching, the primary near-term catalyst remains the final overnight model updates from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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