**Forecast models indicate the overnight low in Wellington on September 6 will likely fall between 9–12°C, with closely matched market probabilities reflecting uncertainty in the timing and intensity of a southerly wind shift.** A cold front is expected to advect cooler maritime air from the south, while increasing cloud cover and rain limit radiative cooling overnight. Key variables include exact wind direction and speed—stronger southerlies enhance cooling, whereas lingering northerlies or heavier precipitation could keep temperatures closer to 12–13°C. Official monitoring from sources like MetService and NIWA shows recent model runs diverging slightly on minimum thresholds, consistent with historical September variability where clear-sky nights can drop 2–3°C below cloudy ones. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble guidance and surface observations ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 6?
9°C 88%
10°C 88%
14°C 88%
8°C or below 69%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
69%
9°C
88%
10°C
88%
11°C
45%
12°C
45%
13°C
45%
14°C
88%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
9°C 88%
10°C 88%
14°C 88%
8°C or below 69%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
69%
9°C
$0 Vol.
88%
10°C
$0 Vol.
88%
11°C
$0 Vol.
45%
12°C
$0 Vol.
45%
13°C
$44 Vol.
45%
14°C
$0 Vol.
88%
15°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate the overnight low in Wellington on September 6 will likely fall between 9–12°C, with closely matched market probabilities reflecting uncertainty in the timing and intensity of a southerly wind shift.** A cold front is expected to advect cooler maritime air from the south, while increasing cloud cover and rain limit radiative cooling overnight. Key variables include exact wind direction and speed—stronger southerlies enhance cooling, whereas lingering northerlies or heavier precipitation could keep temperatures closer to 12–13°C. Official monitoring from sources like MetService and NIWA shows recent model runs diverging slightly on minimum thresholds, consistent with historical September variability where clear-sky nights can drop 2–3°C below cloudy ones. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble guidance and surface observations ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$184End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate the overnight low in Wellington on September 6 will likely fall between 9–12°C, with closely matched market probabilities reflecting uncertainty in the timing and intensity of a southerly wind shift.** A cold front is expected to advect cooler maritime air from the south, while increasing cloud cover and rain limit radiative cooling overnight. Key variables include exact wind direction and speed—stronger southerlies enhance cooling, whereas lingering northerlies or heavier precipitation could keep temperatures closer to 12–13°C. Official monitoring from sources like MetService and NIWA shows recent model runs diverging slightly on minimum thresholds, consistent with historical September variability where clear-sky nights can drop 2–3°C below cloudy ones. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble guidance and surface observations ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$184End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate the overnight low in Wellington on September 6 will likely fall between 9–12°C, with closely matched market probabilities reflecting uncertainty in the timing and intensity of a southerly wind shift.** A cold front is expected to advect cooler maritime air from the south, while increasing cloud cover and rain limit radiative cooling overnight. Key variables include exact wind direction and speed—stronger southerlies enhance cooling, whereas lingering northerlies or heavier precipitation could keep temperatures closer to 12–13°C. Official monitoring from sources like MetService and NIWA shows recent model runs diverging slightly on minimum thresholds, consistent with historical September variability where clear-sky nights can drop 2–3°C below cloudy ones. Traders are weighting the latest ensemble guidance and surface observations ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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